There isn’t a soul here at FR that didn’t expect it to get worse.
It’s the degree of “worseness” that folks are divided over...
So far the regular flu has been worse this year. Way overblown !
Our domestic enemies are very hopeful.
Could be worse, could be raining.
“There isn’t a soul here at FR that didn’t expect it to get worse.”
I’m not sure, since a good way of predicting effects of the “disaster of the day” drivel oozing from the MSM is to expect the inverse.
Well, the number of dead will increase, but what matters, statistically, is the number of deaths per week. Is it increasing or decreasing or remaining stable?
And how about that same statistic in China?
China is the origin of the virus and still accounts for over 80 percent of cases and deaths. But its cases peaked and began declining more than a month ago, according to data presented by the Canadian epidemiologist who spearheaded the World Health Organization’s coronavirus mission to China. Fewer than 200 new cases are reported daily, down from a peak of 4,000.
Subsequent countries will follow this same pattern, in what’s called Farr’s Law. First formulated in 1840 and ignored in every epidemic hysteria since, the law states that epidemics tend to rise and fall in a roughly symmetrical pattern or bell-shaped curve. AIDS, SARS, Ebola — they all followed that pattern. So does seasonal flu each year.
Clearly, flu is vastly more contagious than the new coronavirus, as the WHO has noted. Consider that the first known coronavirus cases date back to early December, and since then, the virus has afflicted fewer people in total than flu does in a few days. Oh, and why are there no flu quarantines? Because it’s so contagious, it would be impossible.
As for death rates, you can’t employ simple math — as everyone is doing — and look at deaths versus cases because those are reported cases. With both flu and assuredly with coronavirus, the great majority of those infected have symptoms so mild — if any — that they don’t seek medical attention and don’t get counted in the caseload.
It’s the degree of “worseness” that folks are divided over...
+++++
I’m not sure you are correct about all Freepers expect it to get worse. I hope you are right because it has been doing just that every single day since we started paying attention to the CV about a month ago.
Every day it gets worse.
We can live with that if we are “getting worse” at a slow enough rate. That rate is maybe 7% or less new cases per day. Rates much higher than that push us rapidly (weeks to months) into the millions or more infected.
So your comment about the “worseness” being what we are arguing about here is spot on.
But note 2 things:
1. In the U.S. we are nowhere close to that 7% target. It’s more like 35% new cases daily. Either that number comes down or we have a disaster on hands.
2. The experts may know the level of “worseness”. But if they do they are not telling us. Personally I don’t think they really know.