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Agreed. Exponential math can get kind of scary. However, it doesn't apply to this kind of natural phenomenon. Two good reasons.

Nature is not that neat. One lily pad or host is not always going to result in two more. Some might, some might be "leaf" nodes and spread no further. Some might produce three... So while it may be somewhat useful for characterizing the potential, it has very little to do with reality. In computer algorithms we call this "big-Oh" notation, a way to bound a problem/algorithm, but not an exact prediction of performance.

This scary prediction fails to take into account any natural feedback mechanisms. The article even makes reference to some instituted in Asian nations. Things like reducing social interaction, improved hygiene, etc. The population will react and take measures that will impact the growth curve.

Is corona virus going to be bad? Yes, it already is. It is a tragedy for the families that have already lost loved ones to it. I personally doubt it is going to be as bad as the plain old flu. Yes it spreads as easily, maybe even easier, and yes it currently has a higher mortality rate. However, there is so much hype and sensationalism about it people are over-sensitized. So while I'm sure most of this in the MSM is in fact intended to be used as background to hurt President Trump, it does serve a purpose - it will frighten many people into taking drastic action. Last year, if one of your coworkers came down with the flu - would everyone else at work self-quarantine? Would the office shut down? No, it would be "Bob has the flu? Gee that's too bad." and work would go on. Maybe one or two of Bob's co-workers would come down with it too because he didn't go home / stay home soon enough - he was trying to power through it. Not so with corona virus and all the FUD. People will take (heck, are taking) far more drastic actions. So even though corona has the potential, it is getting a lot more attention and will be thwarted.

Stupid. Not exponential.

Don't you mean "expo-dential?"

Not stupid, either. Epidemics do rise and fall, but the rise is approximately exponential until limiting factors come into play. It's hard to say early how "high" the curve will get before it flattens and turns down early on.

There's a tension between caution and panic. It's hard to say where the balance should be absent more information. Saying "there aren't nearly as many COVID cases as there have been of the flu" is true today, but it is normalcy bias to say that because that's true there's no need to be concerned.

Agreed. Let's use some actual data vs made-up "global warming"-esq hyperbole.

Here is the plot of SARS cases over time:

Clearly, the rate of increase in cases is high early in this saga, but at some point it leveled off. The lily pads didn't overtake the pond.

Let's look at the ACTUAL Case Fatality Rate for SARS for select countries:

Now, to be sure, the CFR is high initially but then it declines (due to a variety of things like improved controls, better medical care, etc.). Even in Taiwan where it rose initially, it eventually leveled off.

Yes, I know...Coronavirus isn't SARS. But Coronavirus isn't TEOTWAWKI...even if you don't trust the PRC data, in the Western World especially in non-Italian European countries, the numbers aren't akin to lily pad overtake. Even in the US, while we are seeing growth in cases, we're not seeing wide swaths of the citizenry being taken out.

Of course...wash your hands, bump elbows, and maybe pick up an extra case of water and bags of chips. Keep watch and be vigilant. But anyone with a browser, a calculator, and some good reading comprehension will understand the hype is greater than the human toll.