Preprint: “Our research indicates that, as of 03/01/2020., it is likely that there are already thousands of individuals in the US infected with SARS-CoV-2.”
Today, 12:52 PM
The authors are from Cedars Sinai Hospital in Los Angeles and Peking University in Beijing
Estimating the scale of COVID-19 Epidemic in the United States: Simulations Based on Air Traffic directly from Wuhan, China
Dalin Li, Jun Lv, Gregory Botwin, Jonathan Braun, Weihua Cao, Liming Li, Dermot P.B. McGovern
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.06.20031880
This article is a preprint and has not been peer-reviewed [what does this mean?]. It reports new medical research that has yet to be evaluated and so should not be used to guide clinical practice.
Abstract
Info/History
Metrics
Preview PDF
Abstract
Introduction: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection has been characterized by rapid spread and unusually large case clusters. It is important to have an estimate of the current state of COVID-19 epidemic in the U.S. to develop informed public health strategies.
Methods: We estimated the potential scale of the COVID-19 epidemic (as of 03/01/2020) in the U.S. from cases imported directly from Wuhan area. We used simulations based on transmission dynamics parameters estimated from previous studies and air traffic data from Wuhan to the U.S and deliberately built our model based on conservative assumptions. Detection and quarantine of individual COVID-19 cases in the U.S before 03/01/2020 were also taken into account. We. A SEIR model was used to simulate the growth of the number of infected individuals in Wuhan area and in the U.S.
Results: With the most likely model, we estimated that there would be 9,484 infected cases (90%CI 2,054-24,241) as of 03/01/2020 if no intervention procedure had been taken to reduce the transmissibility in unidentified cases. Assuming current preventive procedures have reduced 25% of the transmissibility in unidentified cases, the number of infected cases would be 1,043 (90%CI 107-2,474).
Conclusion: Our research indicates that, as of 03/01/2020., it is likely that there are already thousands of individuals in the US infected with SARS-CoV-2. Our model is dynamic and is available to the research community to further evaluate as the situation becomes clearer.
https://www.medrxiv.org/lookup/doi/10.1101/2020.03.06.20031880
Thanks for posting.
But, Duh?
Not at you....but at the conclusion.
Just got, yet, one more chest freezer. Will be filling it tomorrow. I figure that after that, time’s up! ...for the complete freedom to buy what we want, when we want.
By the way, Costco told us that their meats are selling out like crazy...wonder why?
So probably the real cases double every day, so lets be optimistic and say only one thousand cases on March 1.
I would say the cases double every three days or so—probably optimistic as well (again, imho) so here is what that looks like:
March 2—2,000
March 5—4,000
March 8—8,000
Tomorrow—16,000
March 14—32,000
March 17—64,000
March 20—128,000
March 23—256,000
March 26—512,000
One million cases by the end of the month, 15% require hospitalization = 150,000.
Hospitals overwhelmed.
Sorry if I scared some folks... :-(