Posted on 03/10/2020 5:22:41 AM PDT by Vermont Lt
Continuation of the thread.
Please use this thread to consolidate the discussion and stories.
I’m finally caught up.
Wow!
The projecting has held true for the numbers before I began looking at them and for the six days I’ve been tracking, prior to posting here
But, you’re right looking forward looks bad. Very bad. NOBODY likes the possibility of what it portends, including me.
I will post the numbers and let’s see if the doubling trend continues. If so, the current rate predicts 8,000 around St. Patrick’s Day, next Tuesday.
The number of confirmed cases rate of doubling could change.
For instance...
...The number of producable kits may not match the number required to be tested
...The number of personnel to administer the tests may decrease
...The government might see the rate and, like China did five times to rig the results, modify auto qualifies to be tested. This would be a effort to artificially report less possible than exists, for optics/propaganda
...the virus may mutate, rendering current tests inaccurate (not did if that can happen, but throwing it out there)
There will come a point where any numbers the CDC gives will not be believed.
The Chris Martenson video (”Our Authorities Poor Response) was very interesting:
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCD2-QVBQi48RRQTD4Jhxu8w
He covered many of the same topics we covered today.
But he didn’t know why there was so little testing because he made the video before we found out (lab equipment, lab equipment, lab equipment—a killer bottleneck).
If you want to panic, all you need to do is make one simple calculation:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Italy cases: 10,149 cases per 1M population: 167.9
So that is a metric that actually tells you about testing—the testing rate in Italy.
Now, for the US
US cases: 975 cases cases per 1M population: 2.9
So, if we take the Italy testing rate and we divide it by the US testing rate, 167.9/2.9 = 57.9.
That means if we tested at the same rate as Italy we would have 975 x 57.9 = 56,452 cases.
US—56,452 cases.
That is my estimate for US cases.
Double every three days—here we go:
Friday the 13th—112,904
March 16—225,808
March 19—451,615
March 22—903,230
March 25-1,806,460
March 28-3,612,920
End of March—7,225,840
That would mean over a million folks requiring hospitalization.
They used to call economics the dismal profession.
I now declare math the dismal profession. :-(
SK cases rising again...there is a new cluster in Seoul
NEW: South Korea reports 242 new cases of coronavirus and 6 new deaths, raising total to 7,755 cases and 60 dead
Something else to share, here (reproduced exactly as I received it):
3/8/2020
Notes from the front lines:
I attended the Infectious Disease Association of California (IDAC) Northern California Winter Symposium on Saturday 3/7. In attendance were physicians from Santa Clara, San Francisco and Orange Counties who had all seen and cared for COVID-19 patients, both returning travelers and community-acquired cases. Also present was the Chief of ID for Providence hospitals, who has 2 affected Seattle hospitals under his jurisdiction. Erin Epson, CDPH director of Hospital Acquired Infections, was also there to give updates on how CDPH and CDC are handling exposed health care workers, among other things. Below are some of the key take-aways from their experiences.
1. The most common presentation was one week prodrome of myaglias, malaise, cough, low grade fevers gradually leading to more severe trouble breathing in the second week of illness. It is an average of 8 days to development of dyspnea and average 9 days to onset of pneumonia/pneumonitis. It is not like Influenza, which has a classically sudden onset. Fever was not very prominent in several cases. The most consistently present lab finding was lymphopenia (with either leukocytosis or leukopenia). The most consistent radiographic finding was bilateral interstitial/ground glass infiltrates. Aside from that, the other markers (CRP, PCT) were not as consistent.
2. Co-infection rate with other respiratory viruses like Influenza or RSV is <=2%, interpret that to mean if you have a positive test for another respiratory virus, then you do not test for COVID-19. This is based on large dataset from China.
3. So far, there have been very few concurrent or subsequent bacterial infections, unlike Influenza where secondary bacterial infections are common and a large source of additional morbidity and mortality.
4. Patients with underlying cardiopulmonary disease seem to progress with variable rates to ARDS and acute respiratory failure requiring BiPAP then intubation. There may be a component of cardiomyopathy from direct viral infection as well. Intubation is considered “source control” equal to patient wearing a mask, greatly diminishing transmission risk. BiPAP is the opposite, and is an aerosol generating procedure and would require all going into the room to wear PAPRs.
5. To date, patients with severe disease are most all (excepting those whose families didn’t sign consent) getting Remdesivir from Gilead through compassionate use. However, the expectation is that avenue for getting the drug will likely close shortly. It will be expected that patients would have to enroll in either Gilead’s RCT (5 vs 10 days of Remdesivir) or the NIH’s “Adaptive” RCT (Remdesivir vs. Placebo). Others have tried Kaletra, but didn’t seem to be much benefit.
6. If our local MCHD lab ran out of test kits we could use Quest labs to test. Their test is 24-48 hour turn-around-time. Both Quest and ordering physician would be required to notify Public Health immediately with any positive results. Ordering physician would be responsible for coordinating with the Health Department regarding isolation. Presumably, this would only affect inpatients though since we (CHOMP) have decided not to collect specimens ordered by outpatient physicians.
7. At facilities that had significant numbers of exposed healthcare workers they did allow those with low and moderate risk exposures to return to work well before 14 days. Only HCW with highest risk exposures were excluded for almost the full 14 days (I think 9 days). After return to work, all wore surgical masks while at work until the 14 days period expired. All had temperature check and interview with employee health prior to start of work, also only until the end of the 14 days. Obviously, only asymptomatic individuals were allowed back.
8. Symptom onset is between 2-9 days post-exposure with median of 5 days. This is from a very large Chinese cohort.
9. Patients can shed RNA from 1-4 weeks after symptom resolution, but it is unknown if the presence of RNA equals presence of infectious virus. For now, COVID-19 patients are “cleared” of isolation once they have 2 consecutive negative RNA tests collected >24 hours apart.
10. All suggested ramping up alternatives to face-to-face visits, tetemedicine, “car visits”, telephone consultation hotlines.
11. Sutter and other larger hospital systems are using a variety of alternative respiratory triage at the Emergency Departments.
12. Health Departments (CDPH and OCHD) state the Airborne Infection Isolation Room (AIIR) is the least important of all the suggested measures to reduce exposure. Contact and droplet isolation in a regular room is likely to be just as effective. One heavily affected hospital in San Jose area is placing all “undifferentiated pneumonia” patients not meeting criteria for COVID testing in contact+droplet isolation for 2-3 days while seeing how they respond to empiric treatment and awaiting additional results.
Feel free to share. All PUIs in Monterey Country so far have been negative.
Martha.
Martha L. Blum, MD, PhD
I just listened to Electric Light Orchestra "Fire On High" backwards.
An interesting thing about this doubling every three days is the virus would actually run out of new US people to infect by the end of April.
So, maybe that is the plan—have a couple of months of chaos (long before the election) and then recover.
Am I kidding—I don’t know....
“It’s a supposition.”
So you don’t have any evidence that Steve Hatfield is being paid by China and acting as their agent? And yet that’s what you were saying just a few posts upthread?
“Because Hatfield’s statement was over a month ago.”
And he’s still making it. Hatfield is a regular guest on Steve Bannon’s daily podcast. And like all careful analysts he isn’t claiming to know what hasn’t been proven when there are other plausible explanations.
“And it’s interesting to ME, that YOU are taking up for CCP.”
Oh, so now I’m an agent for the Chinese Communist Party.
Well unlike Hatfield that smear won’t damage my professional reputation as a virologist and American expert on biological warfare since I don’t have one.
So I’m probably a safer target for you to smear.
What it does do is reveal your willingness to casually engage in falsehood. Seems to be your fallback position.
According to Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar, officials do not know how many Americans have been tested for the fast spreading coronavirus....
HHS Secretary Azar Unsure About Number Of Americans Tested For Coronavirus
https://www.oann.com/hhs-secretary-azar-unsure-about-number-of-americans-tested-for-coronavirus/
g
One for the doomsters...
https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1237354878248333313
But: “We looked at the epidemics in Wuhan and Guangzho and their ICU and hospital bed use vs US capacity. Summary: Wuhan’s peak critical case load per capita was equal to the total number of ICU beds per capita in the US — a similar experience to Wuhan would fill our ICU with COVID”
“Fill”, not over-fill.
Three more Collin County COVID-19 cases
Posted: 7:27 PM, Mar 10, 2020
Updated: 8:36 PM, Mar 10, 2020
By: Catherine McGinty
Here in Texas, three more cases of COVID-19 have been confirmed in Collin County, north of Dallas.
Now state leaders are calling on health insurance companies to waive coronavirus testing fees.
New cases in Collin County include a Frisco man who recently traveled to California, as well as his wife and their 3-year-old child.
The family is in stable condition and in self-imposed quarantine at their home.
https://www.kristv.com/news/local-news/three-more-collin-county-covid-19-cases
Pretty messed up that the family member under quarantine went to the school function anyway. What is wrong with people?
Well I hope you feel better after having rid yourself of that remarkably incoherent rant.
She’s libelling Steve Hatfield. Not me. Learn to read.
I’m done.
I’m putting you in the 50c Wumao army cubby.
Have a great day!
If you watch the Martenson video, you will conclude that Azar is a blithering idiot—not even a close call....
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCD2-QVBQi48RRQTD4Jhxu8w
“Our Authorities Poor Response”
Situation Update
March 10, 2020 Alameda County Public Health Department Confirms Third Positive Case of COVID-19; Announces New Recommendations and Guidance to Protect Alameda County Residents from COVID-19
ALAMEDA COUNTY, CA – Alameda County Public Health Department reported a third case of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19).
Situation Update
March 10, 2020 Alameda County Public Health Department Confirms Third Positive Case of COVID-19; Announces New Recommendations and Guidance to Protect Alameda County Residents from COVID-19
ALAMEDA COUNTY, CA – Alameda County Public Health Department reported a third case of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19).
http://www.acphd.org/2019-ncov.aspx
You’ve been done long before this.
We’re scheduled to vote here next Tuesday. And guess where, at a retirement-nursing complex. There’s an important levy with this.
Voluntary quarantine is what is messed up.
The stakes are too high—mandatory quarantine (meaning troops standing outside the door or quarantine inside a fenced and guarded quarantine area) is the only sensible quarantine.
No half measures.
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