Posted on 03/08/2020 9:27:41 PM PDT by aquila48
A mix of legacy drugmakers and small startups have stepped forward with plans to develop vaccines or treatments that target the infection caused by the novel coronavirus.
COVID-19, which was first detected in December in Wuhan, China, has sickened more than 100,000 people worldwide and killed at least 3,400. There are no Food and Drug Administration-approved vaccines or therapies for the disease.
In the U.S., the companies that are initiating development have received funding from two organizations: the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA), which is a division of the Department of Health and Human Services, and the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), a division of the National Institutes of Health. Some companies have received funding from Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI), a global organization based in Oslo. Other companies are funding trials by themselves or through partnerships with other life sciences companies.
Here are some of the companies developing treatments or vaccines in the U.S. for COVID-19:
Gilead Sciences Inc. GILD, +5.37%
GlaxoSmithKline GSK, -0.49%
.........
(More at the site)
(Excerpt) Read more at marketwatch.com ...
I bought INO last week. It is fixing to explode up this week if you go by the the crowded 24/7 message board at yahoo.
I missed out on INO, but bought some call options on GILD that have done pretty well so far. INO, though, has been spectacular - 340% in one month!
Sounds like within two to four weeks we should have some idea if any of the vaccines being tried out work.
These are numbers for the U.S. only. So far, 3,400 deaths WORLDWIDE have been reported and yet there appears to be wholesale panic and untold economic destruction this time around. I guess I just don’t understand. Yeah, it’s highly contagious, but only the elderly and those with preexisting compromised health seem to be the fatalities. Some people have no symptoms at all. How is this any different from the annual flu season?
I’m gonna let everyone else line up for these.
- * unless noted otherwise, these figures are EOD 03/07.
These numbers include Mainland China and All Others globally
This format allows you to see trends. I'll continue to use it.
Today's figures will not appear here, because we are not at the
end of the day yet, and all other figures are EOD figures.
Declared Cases
. Declared Deceased
. . Declared Recovered
. . . Declared Resolved
Date . . . . Cases Remining Active
-----------------------------------------------------------------
03/03 93,160 3,198 50,690 53,888 39,272
03/04 95,425 3,286 53,399 56,685 38,740
03/05 98,387 3,383 55,441 58,824 39,563
03/06 102,188 3,491 57,389 60,880 41,308
03/07 106,165 3,977 59,965 63,559 42,606
It's not that easy to spot the changes in daily growth.03/03: 2,223 03/04: 2,265 03/05: 2,962 03/06: 3,801 03/07: 3,977That's a rather prounounced growth rate. These are just the declared cases
The last column there shows the numbers of active cases. You will note how
they were dropping, then started increasing again. Here are the last five days
drop & then growth numbers.
03/03: -494 03/04: -532 03/05: 823 03/06: 1,745 03/07: 1,298Resolved cases are still helping to soften the massive numbers of new cases
We are seeing record breaking day to day large numbers. We had one spell where
the cases were larger for a day or two, but those were special circumstance
numbers. There was a reclassification in China, that saw over 15,000 cases
dumped into the list on one day. The following days was also abnormally high
Other than those two days, we've not see days where we approached 4,000 new
cases per day. As of 19:33 today, we are already at 3,869 cases.
As predicted, the mortality rate that went as low as 5.65% on the 27th, has now
begun to climb again. As of 19:33 it is running at 5.81%, but later tonight that
may be adjusted a bit, up or down. Generally this time of the day it's down
but things are too hectic to predict.
As predicted, the numbers of active cases of COVID-19 outside China, became larger
than the active cases inside China. At 19:03 the numbers of cases outside China
make up 56.99% of all cases globally. At that time there were 44,292 active
cases.
Globally we have held our own with regard to how many cases have been resolved.
The figure stands at 59,802%. I expected to see that recede more. We are still
very close to seeing 60% of all global cases declared resolved.
These numbers address the cases outside of Mainland China.
I will provide the same format for the numbers outside Mainland China.
Declared Cases
. Declared Deceased
. . Declared Recovered
. . . Declared Resolved
Date . . . . Cases Remining Active
-----------------------------------------------------------------
03/03 12,890 217 837 1,054 11,836
03/04 15,015 279 1,222 1,501 13,514
03/05 17,832 341 1,685 2,026 15,806
03/06 21,537 421 1,986 2,407 19,130
03/07 25,470 497 2,871 3,368 22,102
As you can see, these numbers can easily double or more every five days. As newYou can study the progression of any category you like.
Lets talk about the United States for a minute. I addressed the issue of the
U. S. catching fire several days ago. There was reason for concern, because two
back to back days saw 46.54 & 45.06 growth. That has dropped back to around
26-28%, but that isn't good either, to be honest. Lets hope things cool off.
The current mortality rate of deceased / deceased + recovered is too high to
take much meaning from. I've seen 14-17% figures, but those are not even in
the same ball park as what the final rate will be.
You can still review them if you access my database. That database has full
figures up until the last report at 19:33 this evening.
There are now 109 nations declaring cases within their borders. 1+
Three nations of the 109 nations or entities outside of Mainland China still
account for over 73% of all active cases outside China at this time. They
are slipping a little, but there is a lot of competition out there. Still
The next tier goes down to the 1,000 - 1,200 level. Those were the EOD
figures for 03/07.
7,134 28.01% South Korea
5,883 22.04% Italy
5,823 23.10% Iran
73.15% of all cases ourside of China...
These are clearly three break-out naitons.
I have a new section that addresses only the cases in the United States.
I have a new metric that explains how many people there are to one case in
each of these entities: Globally, Mainland China, Outside China, and inside
the United States. There is one person in every so many people in each of these entities.
Globally : 175,665 Mainland China: 77,852 Outside China : 308,248 The U. S. A. : 637,838All data below sourced from Johns Hopkins University: LINK
I have been downloading three to five reports per day since 01/27. I have then
worked up numbers that should give a very good representation of numbers that have
been provided to the public via that site.
In my spreadsheet linked below, you'll find global numbers including China. You will
find a separate section addressing just the Outside China figures. Then there is now
also a section with just the United States stats in there. There are also a lot of
special stats broken out for you to browse. The history of 109 nations and their
from day one of their reporting.
You're welcome to it.
COVID-19 Spreadsheet using JHU data
I'd like to apologize to those who may have been accessing my XLS version.
Due to the numbers of nations I am now tracking, the XLS version cannot support
the width of the file I have created. I can no longer provide it without major work.
If anyone wants that version, let me know and I'll see what I can do.
“These are numbers for the U.S. only. So far, 3,400 deaths WORLDWIDE have been reported and yet there appears to be wholesale panic and untold economic destruction this time around. I guess I just don’t understand. “
It has to do with the mortality rate. There have been about 100,000 people infected with Coronavirus so far and 3400 have died. That’s roughly a 3% mortality rate.
Compare that to the “regular flu” with 45 million infected and 61000 dead. That’s a mortality rate of 0.14%. That means Coronavirus is 20 times more deadly!
Which means if 45 million were to be infected with it, the number of deaths would be 1 million 350 thousands (1,350,000) - an absolute disaster.
So it makes a lot of sense to take it very seriously. Hopefully a vaccine will be found soon.
Great info!
Thanks for the post and the spreadsheet.
I love Excel but If you want complete up to date numbers, broken by any number of metrics, country, infected, recovered, serious, deaths, age etc, just go to this site it is already done:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
As of this writing, 106,000 infected, and over 60,000 completely recovered, 3,600 deaths. Now that more testing is being done the infected numbers will rise but not the death rate % as most cases are mild and were unreported only severe cases were being reported initially ( that’s why no one under the age of 10 worldwide has died from it, death rate at 0.2% for those under 40. no deaths in Germany with 946 cases etc
Have a look at this about a discovery in Germany: “camostat mesilate.” It’s about more than preventing spread. It might be a cure.
Scientists may have found a way to prevent coronavirus spread
https://www.news-medical.net/news/20200308/Scientists-may-have-found-a-way-to-prevent-coronavirus-spread.aspx
Thx.
The one question I have, is how many people have actually been infected. We have numbers of “Declared Cases”, which I assume are cases that have actually been tested and confirmed to have COVID-19.
But since some (maybe most) cases of COVID-19 are mild, how many of those mild cases have gone undetected and unreported?
This is a very important question, because what scares most people is the mortality rate, which based on the number of deaths vs Declared Cases, is 20 times deadlier than your “regular” flu.
If it were the case that a million people have been infected instead of 100,000 then the mortality rate would only be twice that of the common flu, and there would be a lot less panic.
Some of his numbers don't match my own.
I've been getting my data from John's Hopkins University.
I'll stick with my own.
I do appreciate the mention.
I have also kept record of nation specific information as to how many
cases they declared all the way back to when they declared their first
case.
The same things happens with every new flu that hits the nation.
A lot of people go home, drink a lot of fluids, eat as decently
as they can, and rest.
I doubt we ever get a true count on those afflicted.
I will be reviewing that site too for some things I don’t cover.
Here’s an article by Fauci, Redfield, and Lane about that.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387
They’re thinking the true case fatality rate may be between .1 and 1 percent. Not great but a whole lot better than the current numbers are showing.
Actually, they say it may be considerably less than 1 percent. That makes me feel a little better about this.
Need more angry speeches about “taking on” the evil “Big Phahhma” from the frauds, Bernie and Joe
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