Posted on 03/08/2020 6:00:55 PM PDT by narses
With coronavirus death toll in the U.S. rising to 19, people are becoming increasing afraid of contracting the disease. To date, there are 3,803 reported deaths with 109,835 confirmed cases worldwide. Also a total of 60,694 people have recovered from the virus. As the fear of coronavirus continues to spread, there are a growing number of reports of empty shop shelves as people rush to stock up on basic products such as hand soap, sanitizers, tissue papers, and many more. It got so bad that some stores are now limiting purchases of these products, more due to coronavirus fears.
The fears stem from the misleading information coming from mainstream media about the trend of the virus. The media shows the number of fatalities continuously increasing, on a time-based graph. The problem with this is that, the media only uses a cumulative graph to illustrate coronavirus deaths. However, if you look deeper at the raw data provided by John Hopkins on GITHUB, the number of global deaths per day are decreasing worldwide.
Hats off to Evan at TradeGuru, who first noticed the discrepancy in media’s cumulative statistics and created a more accurate chart. According to Evan’s analysis using the raw data provided by John Hopkins University, “the virus is decreasing in hotspots such as South Korea, China and Hong Kong (the first to deal with the novel virus). The press tells us it’s an outbreak, or a pandemic on the precipice. Both situations would suggest exponential growth. The actual data doesn’t suggest exponential growth of fatalities at all. The data suggests decline. In fact, the crude death rate is statistically 0.”
Also, it’s now being estimated that 80% of individuals that contract the coronavirus are asymptomatic or midly-symptomatic. And in this viral video, Rebecca Fraiser says she “never really felt unwell” after contracting the virus, and it “sounds like it is the case for the majority of people.”
I am not buying anything...except perhaps my face mask stock depending on how it gyrates.
Your claim was that margin calls were going to be the issue, where is your evidence for that?
Get a hold of yourself, man. If you’re THAT frightened, stock up and shelter in place. You also might want to see a psychiatrist about that panic disorder. I’m not being flippant; if your actual attitude matches your hysterical post, you may need medication to calm your nerves.
But it looks as if the people who are dying are high risk patients -— old and/or medically unstable. If that describes you, then I can understand your concern, and as I said, stock up and shelter in place, but calm down.
Good points.
I should feel sorry for idiot speculators? Sorry, no sale.
You have yet to show how much margin there is, you are spewing fear and panic, why?
The last time futures trading hit the overnight limit was election night of 2016, when markets initially sold off following the news that Donald Trump had won the election. That selling pressure quickly subsided and the major indexes closed up by around 1 percent or so the following day.
Which is exactly why I live out in the sticks, saved a few months worth of money, bought enough food to last two months, medicines for 3, and more ammo than I can use if necessary.
Avoid others - especially crowds.
Wash hands after touching surfaces or use sanitizer.
Stay alert, stay alive. Without panic.
Over at the virus forum on Reddit, they are all cheering every death, blaming Trump. Those are the walking dead over there - inside their hearts as they have no souls - and should remain in the cities should SHTF.
It’s all connected ... it affects everyone with money in the market ... or employees of the companies that may need to start laying off if the downturn gets extended ...
You can repeat that all you want but without MAJOR intervention there will be a huge sell off...and part of it will be margin calls.
ON the bright side
Will Meade
@realwillmeade
·
4h
If you’re a bull the bloodbath tonight and tomorrow is exactly what you want a huge 4% drop taking out recent panic lows then we likely bottom this week. This feels like the real panic low tonight.. Fed now likely to cut another 25 to 50 on 3/18, and may telegraph it this week
HOW VIRUS WAS CONTRACTED and CONFIRMED CASES:
Unknown...214
Cluster a community in New Rochelle, N.Y....54
Nursing facility in Kirkland, Wash...51
Diamond Princess cruise ship...43
Personal contact in U.S...39
Travel overseas...30
Travel in Italy...28
Business conference in Boston...22
Travel in Egypt...19
Grand Princess cruise ship...17
Travel in China...15
Travel within the U.S...7
Hospital in Vacaville, Calif...3
Travel in Iran...1
Travel in South Korea..1
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html
HOW VIRUS WAS CONTRACTED and CONFIRMED CASES:
Unknown...214
Cluster a community in New Rochelle, N.Y....54
Nursing facility in Kirkland, Wash...51
Diamond Princess cruise ship...43
Personal contact in U.S...39
Travel overseas...30
Travel in Italy...28
Business conference in Boston...22
Travel in Egypt...19
Grand Princess cruise ship...17
Travel in China...15
Travel within the U.S...7
Hospital in Vacaville, Calif...3
Travel in Iran...1
Travel in South Korea..1
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html
Indeed. And the trends worldwide are flattening out.
++++=
Not true. Don’t look at the total worldwide counts. Look at every other country but China. When you do you will see very few are flattening out. South Korea and Japan. Certainly not the U.S. and Europe.
Ah, so including China, which is not reporting significant new cases and assuming you trust that, with the rest of the world implies a slowdown, because Chinas reported cases represent the significant majority of the total cases even still. They are a different parabola from the rest of the world.
Here are the figures for some of the last few days for the world outside of China and Iran:
. . . Cases. Dead. Recovered. Dead/Resolved. . . . .
4 Mar 12085,,181,,,670,,,,,,,,21%
5 Mar 13944,,227,,,818,,,,,,,,22%
8 Mar 22733,,511,,1239,,,,,,,,29%
Unfortunately, I didn’t start keeping the captured figures until last week, only some of the results. Since Tuesday before last, the dead/resolved has been holding at 14-15%, and then began creeping up to 20% last Tuesday. So, that does not imply at all what the thesis of this article suggests. It does confirm that China is not reporting many new cases, and if it is to be believed, it is roughly contained there. The rest of the world, not so much.
Now, some things to keep in mind, since in the early part of the outbreak, the fatality rate is overstated since it takes less time to die than it does to recover. Further, there is some unknown number of people who are sick, but not discovered. With the lack of test kits until recently, this unknown number may be larger in the US, especially than in South Korea or Italy, but do not appear to be hugely so as a ratio - certainly nowhere close to enough to suppose COVID-19 is on the order of a bad flu in regards lethality. If the Chinese have actually begun to report numbers reliably (which the article’s these firmly relies upon), then the numbers of cases which were unknown is relatively small. Do keep in mind that unlike the flu, where no real effort is made to track down the source of an infection, there has been a very vigorous effort to track down every single COVID case.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/#days
**Days from first symptom to death
The Wang et al. February 7 study published on JAMA found that the median time from first symptom to dyspnea was 5.0 days, to hospital admission was 7.0 days, and to ARDS was 8.0 days.[9]
Previously. the China National Health Commission reported the details of the first 17 deaths up to 24 pm 22 Jan 2020. A study of these cases found that the median days from first symptom to death were 14 (range 6-41) days, and tended to be shorter among people of 70 year old or above (11.5 [range 6-19] days) than those with ages below 70 year old (20 [range 10-41] days.[6]
**Median Hospital Stay
The JANA study found that, among those discharged alive, the median hospital stay was 10 days.[9] “
The faulty method of calculating mortality rate of dividing deaths by spread has been persistent, and even WHO has put out numbers based upon this ridiculous case of bad math.
Here is an good explanation of why deaths/cases is absurd:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/#correct
“The correct formula, therefore, would appear to be:
CFR = deaths at day.x / cases at day.x-{T}
(where T = average time period from case confirmation to death)
This would constitute a fair attempt to use values for cases and deaths belonging to the same group of patients.
One issue can be that of determining whether there is enough data to estimate T with any precision, but it is certainly not T = 0 (what is implicitly used when applying the formula current deaths / current cases to determine CFR during an ongoing outbreak). “
If you were to replace “Coronavirus” with “Ricin”, and inject 100 people with a dose which would kill 100% in a week, then every day double the number of people you give the injection, using the deaths/cases method, after one week you would have a fatality/injection ratio of 0.78% (100/12,700), for a 100% fatal toxin.
“OK, now there are only 2, but that really is twice yesterday’s”
Could be linear. Could be exponential. :-)
Actually there is a sort of magic bullet for allergies.
Move every 5 years to a totally new local. You will get significant improvement but in about 5 years your body acclimates to the new stuff and it starts over again.
Maybe Gavin Newsom can make a doctor write you a prescription for doing that & have the gubbermint pay for it. LOL
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