These numbers include Mainland China and All Others globally
Because things are heating up, I wanted to present the data a little
different this time. Let's look at the normal things, but provide
the last five days of each metric. I want you to be able to see how
things are changing.
Declared Cases
. Declared Deceased
. . Declared Recovered
. . . Declared Resolved
Date . . . . Cases Remining Active
-----------------------------------------------------------------
03/02 90,937 3,117 48,054 51,171 39,766
03/03 93,160 3,198 50,690 53,888 39,272
03/04 95,425 3,286 53,399 56,685 38,740
03/05 98,387 3,383 55,441 58,824 39,563
03/06 102,188 3,491 57,389 60,880 41,308
It's not that easy to spot the change in daily growth. Here are the change That's a rather prounounced growth rate. Now these are just the declared
cases, but still...
The last column there shows the numbers of active cases. You will note how
they were dropping, then started increasing again. Here are the last five days
drop & growth numbers. -1,164, -494, -532, +823, +1,745...
It may seem that the rapid growth of declared cases would result in a larger
increase in active cases, but resolved cases each day offsets the growth.
This is the natural way the active cases lag behind the declarations.
Right now that 3,801 new declared cases looms large. The bright side of that
is that in two-three weeks, guess what happens. At some point we'll have
3,000-3,500 resolved cases per day going forward. That in turn will be
offsetting any new cases cropping up then. Then at some point the number
of active cases will stagnate, and start falling again. That will be the
beginning of the end.
This will be an interesting process, because we may have ten to twenty hot
spot nations in the days ahead. We've already have 3-5 more headed in
that direction.
Back around the 25th of February I had predicted that this flu might be
on it's last legs by the 15th. If it had been possible to keep this
from spreading outside China in large numbers, that would have held true.
Sadly, that wasn't possible.
We live in a highly mobile world. Infections can find hosts and carriers
rather easily.
The mortality rate did drop a small bit yesterday from 5.75% to 5.73%. It is
stalling due to the massive numbers of new cases outside China.
I expect it to begin to rise in the next 24 to 48 hours. I was surprised
it didn't today.
Later today, the majority of active cases of COVID-19 will exist outside
Mainland China for the first time. It should be documented before noon PST.
We are still a whisker away from 60% of all declared cases, being resolved.
We won't reach that number at this time. The increase in outside Mainland
China cases will prevent it.
These numbers address the cases outside of Mainland China.
I will provide the same format for the numbers outside Mainland China.
Declared Cases
. Declared Deceased
. . Declared Recovered
. . . Declared Resolved
Date . . . . Cases Remining Active
-----------------------------------------------------------------
03/02 10,786 173 792 965 9,821
03/03 12,890 217 837 1,054 11,836
03/04 15,015 279 1,222 1,501 13,514
03/05 17,832 341 1,685 2,026 15,806
03/06 21,537 421 1,986 2,407 19,130
Those numbers could easily continue to double or more every five days. As newYou can study the progression of any category you like.
Lets talk about the United States for a minute. I am troubled by the daily
growth I'm seeing. Our cases are now growing at the rate of 50% per day.
Those of you who know how compound interest works, will realize it will only
take a matter of days before we have thousnd of cases here, if thie rate keeps
up. I'm resigned to the idea it will.
Here are the last seven days:
02/29 - 071
03/01 - 086
03/02 - 105
03/03 - 127
03/04 - 159
03/05 - 233
03/06 - 338
Notice how tht daily change has grown close to 50%.
Here is what the slice of the Active Case Pie, looks like outside Mainland
China. Here is the percentage of Active Cases outside China.
03/02 - 24.70%
03/03 - 30.14%
03/04 - 34.88%
03/05 - 39.95%
03/06 - 46.31%
That makes it pretty clear why I said over 50% of the Active Cases outside
Mainland China will excede 50% for the first time.
The current mortality rate of deceased / deceased + recovered is 17.49%. That figure
is still grosely high, and should not be used for purposes of extrapolation of what
lies ahead.
There are now 15,806 active cases outside of Mainland China. The number of
active cases grew 2,792 cases today, and that was a rate of 16.96%. (EOD 03/06)
102 nations are now declaring cases within their borders. 1+
Three nations of the 102 nations or entities outside of Mainland China still account
for right at 75% of all active cases outside China at this time.
6,767 31.42% South Korea
4,747 21.53% Iran
4,636 22.04% Italy
74.99% of all cases ourside of China...
These are clearly three break-out naitons.
All data below sourced from Johns Hopkins University: LINK
I have been downloading three to five reports per day since 01/27. I have then
worked up numbers that should give a very good representation of numbers that have
been provided to the public via that site.
In my spreadsheet linked below, you'll find global numbers including China. You will
find a separate section addressing just the Outside China figures. There are also
a lot of special stats broken out for you to browse. The history of 102 nations and
their Coronavirus record is there for you to view.
You're welcome to it.
COVID-19 Spreadsheet using JHU data
I'd like to apologize to those who may have been accessing my XLS version.
Due to the numbers of nations I am now tracking, the XLS version cannot support
the width of the file I have created. I can no longer provide it without major work.
If anyone wants that version, let me know and I'll see what I can do.
Good work.
It will be interesting to see if Iran has enough of a grip on its populace to pull off a “China”.
None of this (except the effectiveness of the Chinese countermeasures - can they sustain them?) should be much of a surprise. But, damn it anyway.
Freedom isn’t free.
I’m sure the MSM will do an in depth analysis of your data, and use it to publicly apologize for the arrogant lies and propaganda they’ve been spreading.