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Those death numbers would be wonderful if true for all countries.

Because of their policy of testing asymptomatic people, South Korea seems to be showing us that the virus is FAR more widespread than previously thought, and when those mild cases are taken into account, it is much less deadly. SK has only 52 "serious cases" out of over 6,500, while Italy has almost 9X that number with significantly fewer confirmed cases. If Italy were to test as SK is doing, they would likely find 5X-10X more cases. I'm sure the epidemiologists have some equation that makes the difference even greater, because serious cases are always found, while mild cases are only discovered if the person is tested.

So, the upside is that mortality is lower, but the down side is that a lot more people are actually infected and have a mild or asymptomatic case. This might indicate the R₀ is higher than 2.3. CDC's stated strategy from early on has been to slow down the virus, not stop it. Despite having the highest number of infections per capita of any country, SK seems to be winning that battle, or at least they are not completely overwhelmed. The question is, can WE win that battle? Because even 0.6% sucks if the virus is unchecked. Like SK, we need to aggressively attack every outbreak. That and a little progress on the treatment side would help.

If you look at the outbreak map of the US it is obvious that there will be confirmed cases in almost every state by sometime next week.

I am not a conspiracy theorist on this one, but I am convinced CDC is deeply, stunningly incompetent, and won’t be containing anything, mitigating much of anything, or controlling much of anything until the disease is so widespread that the health care system is totally crushed from sea to shining sea.

I would love to be proven wrong, but that is what I am concluding based on what I have seen so far. They are a day late and a dollar short, reactive rather than proactive—every time.

The press conferences bragging about what a great job they are doing just makes them look even dumber, and is totally demoralizing.

Patient Zero tested negative while laying in a hospital and is thought to have been shedding the virus.

We have no reliable information even if all that should be tested were tested.

It’s almost better not to test..that way at least people will quarantine.

THey hear Negative then they think all is fine and go super spread it.

SK seems to be winning that battle,

The drive-thru testing they are doing is brilliant.

We ought to have triage outside of every hospital. If a patient calls, they can be isolated OUTSIDE and tested and contained until the results are in.

The airlines need to get one of those Ultra Violate R2D2 units to disinfect EVERY plane after EVERY flight. Either that or fog the cabin with some kind of bleach spray. No one over 40 ought to be getting on a plane until we get a good grip on this thing.

"Because of their policy of testing asymptomatic people, South Korea seems to be showing us that the virus is FAR more widespread than previously thought, and when those mild cases are taken into account, it is much less deadly. SK has only 52 "serious cases" out of over 6,500, while Italy has almost 9X that number with significantly fewer confirmed cases. If Italy were to test as SK is doing, they would likely find 5X-10X more cases. I'm sure the epidemiologists have some equation that makes the difference even greater, because serious cases are always found, while mild cases are only discovered if the person is tested.

So, the upside is that mortality is lower, but the down side is that a lot more people are actually infected and have a mild or asymptomatic case. This might indicate the R0 is higher than 2.3. CDC's stated strategy from early on has been to slow down the virus, not stop it. Despite having the highest number of infections per capita of any country, SK seems to be winning that battle, or at least they are not completely overwhelmed. The question is, can WE win that battle? Because even 0.6% sucks if the virus is unchecked. Like SK, we need to aggressively attack every outbreak. That and a little progress on the treatment side would help."

Possibly. Possibly South Korea is ahead of the curve--catching large numbers of people before they get really sick and or die.

We'll know the truth once it is over--not before.

If we could follow the current 7000 cases in South Korea for a month or two, then we'd know for sure.

For example: Focus on the known 7000 SK cases this week. In a week, assume 5% (350) should go into the hospital and .5% die (35). In another week, perhaps another 10%. (700.) and .5% die (35). Maybe week 3, another 5%. (350) and .5% die (35). Then maybe add a few random trickles for the next several weeks.

By the end of the month, we'd have a pretty good idea the correct SK ratios of these 7000: 80% mild; 20% hospitalized; 2% dead.

The problem is with an RO of 2.5, new cases are being discovered every day--further skewing the numbers. By this time next week, there will be 17,500 cases discovered in SK, of those 10,000 will be less than a week old.

It's important to understand Death Rate can only be calculated by those with access to all the data--at least until the WU FLU ends--it can't be calculated by taking the (number of deaths/number of cases) primarily because in a pandemic there's a substantial lag time between time of discovery and moment of death.