Gosh, not picking on you. You’re very good.
But I don’t think the virus spreads exponentially.
It naturally would, but there are inherent barriers that prevent it, natural ones.
And, if you take the 6 day doubling of cases (which is what I’ve seen somewhere) and round it off to a week then that is not a fast growth.
I think it’s too late to contain the disease and we’ll have to concentrate on mitigation (which is too bad) but will go very well.
Good topic.
What muddies the waters is the rate of testing.
But, if you look at that Italy graph (posted a while back here and at zero hedge) they went from one verified case on 2/23 to 3,100+ verified cases today.
I am too rusty on math to figure out what “rate” that is....but it seems to double every day, something like that.