Free Republic
Browse · Search
General/Chat
Topics · Post Article

To: AnonymousConservative
Your assumption is that the infection rate will continue year round, but that has not been the case with any corona virus to date.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) was a viral respiratory disease of zoonotic origin caused by the SARS coronavirus. Between November 2002 and July 2003, an outbreak of SARS in southern China caused an eventual 8,098 cases, resulting in 774 deaths reported in 17 countries, with the majority of cases in mainland China and Hong Kong. A death rate at about 9 percent to 12 percent of those who were diagnosed.

MERS-CoV was first identified in a patient in Saudi Arabia in 2012. As with SARS, the disease looks like severe pneumonia; with MERS, patients also have gastrointestinal symptoms, and sometimes experience kidney failure. Since 2012, 27 countries have reported cases, with 2,494 people confirmed infected and 858 dead, mostly in Saudi Arabia. All cases of MERS, the CDC stipulates, have been linked back to people who live in or have traveled to the Arabian Peninsula.

The WHO reports that about 35 percent of MERS-infected people have died, with health care workers at highest risk—though, since MERS can also result in such mild symptoms that a person may have it without knowing it, that death rate is almost certainly inflated.

Currently the death rate for this coronavirus is about 3.5%, with 89,073 infected resulting in 3,046 reported deaths. With the overwhelming numbers in China itself. But what percentage of those deaths were of people who had underlying conditions to begin with? These viruses are going to affect those with deficient immune systems much more severely than those with more robust immune systems. The fact that this corona virus has the same symptoms as the flu means that a lot of people probably did not seek medical attention until it became absolutely necessary to do so, thereby providing time to spread the disease more. So initial blush is to believe there is a rapid spread occurring, when the spread my have started earlier then we think.

At any rate it is really far too early to know exactly how bad this is, but the numbers really do not warrant the hysteria being generated. Is it something to be aware of, absolutely, and unless you live under a rock, I think that awareness exists in spades.

All you are providing is wild claims that really have no basis in reality. So far about 10,00 lives in America alone have been taken by the flu season, but I don't hear the panic with regards to that. The CDC estimates the impact from this flu season will be 32,000,000 – 45,000,000 flu illnesses, 14,000,000 – 21,000,000 flu medical visits, 310,000 – 560,000 flu hospitalizations, resulting in 18,000 – 46,000 flu deaths, and that is just in the U.S.

51 posted on 03/01/2020 11:10:12 PM PST by Robert DeLong
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 47 | View Replies ]


To: Robert DeLong

agree-this is more about alarmist fear mongering than prudent action-90 people in the US die of car accidents every single day on average, 3 million a year injured -more-yet you don’t see people afraid to get in cars, or live threads with constant rumors. If you want to monitor severe carnage-auto deaths are and will be much bigger than SARS, EBOLA or Corona virus in this country.

I get a lot of people like something bigger in the news to avoid dealing with their daily life but this is just irrational , enough already, the reason to stop fueling this is this just helps elect President Sanders


57 posted on 03/02/2020 1:50:18 AM PST by TECTopcat (TopCat)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 51 | View Replies ]

To: Robert DeLong

You may be right, and I hope so. But I cannot fathom why people wouldn’t wan every update posted. If there are cases in my area I want to know.

As I said upstream, we can minimize this, and encourage people to ignore it, but I think that increases the risk that people will not protect themselves, it may hit harder, and Trump will be blamed. Or we can keep it prominent in people’s minds now, make them a little afraid of it, and they will protect themselves. If that happens, the spread will be stifled until things warm up, and hopefully Trump is hailed as a genius.

As for the flu, we are looking at potential. If this spread like the flu, given it has 10-20 times the CFR, you’d be looking at 320,000-900,000 dead. OF course its R value may be as high as four times the R of the flu, according to the research, so it could spread a lot farther.

I do not see why talking about the updates is bad.


65 posted on 03/02/2020 9:29:30 AM PST by AnonymousConservative
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 51 | View Replies ]

Free Republic
Browse · Search
General/Chat
Topics · Post Article


FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson