Posted on 02/29/2020 7:17:15 AM PST by Gamecock
The cruise ship Diamond Princess was quarantined for over two weeks resulting in more coronavirus infected passengers than if they would have disembarked immediately. Rather the opposite to what was intended. This according to a study conducted at Umeå University in Sweden.
“The infection rate onboard the vessel was about four times higher than what can be seen on land in the worst infected areas of China. A probable cause is how close people stay to one another onboard a vessel,” says Joacim Rocklöv, Professor of epidemiology at Umeå University and principal author of the article.
After a person travelling with the cruise ship Diamond Princess disembarked in Hong Kong and was tested positive for the coronavirus, Japanese authorities decided to disallow the 3,700 passengers onboard to leave the ship when it reached Yokohama. The ship was hence put in quarantine until 19 February. Passengers who showed signs of illness were, as far as possible, separated from other passengers onboard. When the quarantine in Yokohama in the end was removed and passengers could finally disembark, a total of 619 passengers had been infected by the coronavirus.
“If the ship had been immediately evacuated upon arrival in Yokohama, and the passengers who tested positive for the coronavirus and potential others in the risk zone had been taken care of, the scenario would have looked quite different. Our calculations show that only around 70 passengers would have been infected. A number that greatly falls short of the over 600 passengers the quarantine resulted in. The precautionary measure of putting the entire ship under quarantine was understandable, but due to the high risk of transmission on the ship, the decision is now questionable,” says Joacim Rocklöv.
At the same time, the study also shows that if the precautionary measures of isolating potential carriers had not been carried out onboard, another 2,300 people would have been infected.
The study is published in the scientific Journal of Travel Medicine.
Maybe Costanza was right.
“Our calculations”<>P
They are speculating to make their point. They don’t know how many more might have infected others. I’m not even sure what’s right, but they need to offer more than ‘our calculations’. That’s how we got Mann’s hockey stick.
““If the ship had been immediately evacuated upon arrival in Yokohama, and the passengers who tested positive for the coronavirus and potential others in the risk zone had been taken care of, the scenario would have looked quite different. Our calculations show that only around 70 passengers would have been infected.”
But how many Japanese would have been infected?
It really wasn’t a quarantine; as the crew did not observe quarantine procedures and they were the ones preparing and delivering all the food. The common ventilation system was also a major problem.
Yes, experience has seen that communicable illnesses produce more people infected on a cruise ship than if the same people had been taken care of on land, and yes the close quarters of a cruise ship are part of that problem. If on a contaminated cruise ship, you’d be better off staying out in the ocean air, and curled up on deck with a sleeping bag, than holed up in your cabin breathing the air circulating in the air system that covers the whole ship.
I’ve never been on a cruise ship. And there aint no way Im going on one now...
Dittos. Even before this stuff, people would tell me how great a cruise was, oh, there's shows and gambling and lounging on the deck. I dunno, but it always sounds like a high class prison to me. If someone else wants to do it, knock yourself out. Me, on the other hand, get in my pickup, pick a direction I've never been, and start driving.
Maybe they should cancel the Olympics. Sounds like a few Japanese authorities could mess it up for everyone.. again.
Those cruise ships are floating Petri Dishes.
Anybody who is still breathing could have figured that one out. DUH. A cruise ship incubates germs. You are forced to breathe recirculated air. It’s the worst place to be when there is an infectious disease.
LOL
Expect some lawsuits in three, two, one, . .
Yes, and so are theaters, DMV, concert halls, stadiums, office cubicles, and anywhere people traffic touch things like stairs or escalators as in a Mall.
I'm pretty much a recluse at my age, but when I even go for gas or to Quick Stop, I always have a small bottle of Purell in my pocket. Anything I bring home during winter season I clean off and then my hands. Plus, get a flu shot every year. I haven't had the flu for decades and rarely get a strong cold.
Duh.
L
No excrement Mr. Holmes.
At 70 now, I use alcohol-infused towelettes at gas stations on pump handles, supermarkets, malls and everywhere I go, too. I carry packages in my Jeep, and have bottles of Purell Hand Sanitizer on board. After being deathly (died 2x) sick, in 2 hospitals for 51 days (total) w/ acute-severe pancreatitis in 2017-18, losing my pancreatitis and becoming a type 1 diabetic, I can’t take any chances.
What did they expect. A quarantine on a cruise ship was not going to work at all. It isn’t set up for that. It’s a petri lab for watching a disease.
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