Posted on 02/25/2020 2:27:09 PM PST by Vermont Lt
Continuation from #2
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/3819175/posts?q=1&;page=493#493
This tells us nothing about what will happen with the corona virus.
You may find this interesting.
I’m in the boonies of the boonies and was thinking how safe I was from the virus. But...
Local churches send people to spread the Gospel in sick areas of the world. And they’ll bring diseases like this back here.
I put the teachings of Jesus before my own thoughts.
Yet it’s weird to see how it puts me at risk.
Just a thought.
The markets don’t CARE about the epidemiology of any disease.
They CARE about whether they will make money this quarter.
When whole supply chains are down because nobody is working (for whatever reason) the market reacts to this.
If china was in the middle of a civil war and the supply chains crashed it would be exactly the same thing.
No product, no sale. No sale, no profit.
It’s as simple as that.
“Cayman Islands government says it is denying entry to the Meraviglia cruise ship because 2 of its crew members aren’t well. Jamaica also denied entry.”
That’s a big boat. Hard to feel sorry for them, though, assuming that the people there boarded in the past 2 weeks. It was really silly of them to think they’d be spared.
Nobody knows what will happen with this corona virus.
We DO know nobody is shipping squat from China.
No product no sale. No sale no profit.
No profit, market reacts accordingly.
No different than if you try to sell something nobody wants.
“Italy has enough cases to export them randomly.”
To me, that means at least 0.1% of their population...or 50,000 cases, so far. Obviously same, or more, for Iran.
Only what is happening with shipping , and likely short term economic effects.
Less so with regard to long term economic effects.
Don’t keep missing the point.
This discussion is about assessing the extent to which the corona virus is an epidemiologic risk.
BTTT for the biggest news!
I hate to see it.
But it had to happen.
Your discussion was why the market was panicking on a ‘rumor’ or ‘hysteria’ about the virus.
The market is reacting to potential profit loss.
That is it.
Not just supply chain disruption.
Example: Estee Lauder sells (IIRC) about 19% of its sales in China. If nobody is going to work, nobody is allowed to shop because nobody is allowed to leave their apartments...who will be wearing or buying the cosmetics?
No one.
How many companies can just shuck off a loss of 19% of their yearly sales?
You speculated on what I rely on for understanding reality.
My point is I consider the Bible to be the highest standard of reality.
I’m not telling you what you should rely on.
No it wasn’t.
Long term economic effects?
How many ‘essential employees’ can any of those factories in China lose before restarting the line involves days or weeks training new employees first?
How many business have cash on hand to withstand no sales for 8 weeks?
How many individuals, that get paid hourly, can withstand having no paycheck for 8 weeks?
Who pays the mortgages, buys the groceries, pays the car notes?
What about the banks?
I am telling you that you need to stop talking and start listening. You talk out your reader end. Read, watch, ask question. Don’t state dumb shit with an argument.
Dont forget Tasmania ! No cases there yet.
So, what happened with your daughter in Haiti. I know you had to be freaking out too. How long did she have to stay?
If you believe the Gospel, you know not to worry about that kind of risk.
Fair enough.
But I’d still like to be able to reason it through.
No big deal.
.
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