Coronavirus Live Thread. Post 2

2/24/2020

[richardskeet]

"U.S. GDP is $21.7 Trillion. Imports and Exports combined (foreign trade) are $2.1 Trillion, or 9.7% of GDP.

Any country whose foreign trade is less than 15% of GDP is essentially a closed economy. In addition to being a closed economy, the U.S. is 27% of world GDP.

China’s GDP is $14.1 Trillion, and $4.62 Trillion (33% of GDP) is foreign trade. They are the world’s largest trading partner. China’s GDP is second only to the U.S., and represents 18% of the world’s GDP.

No matter how severe the impacts to foreign trade caused by the coronavirus, it will be an inconvenience to the U.S, and devastating to the Chinese.

For all of the items currently single sourced from China, an alternative source can be developed or found somewhere else, albeit at a higher cost. Those who go to the trouble of developing alternative sources will develop more than one so that competition will eventually reduce the cost.

Once that development/sourcing leaves China, it is highly unlikely it will go back."



It all sounds pretty convincing. And I'm right there wanting to be with you. America is powerful. China could disappear and it wouldn't be a blip. I want this to be true, but sadly it ain't. At least with short notice.

The truth is, we just don't know. When Caterpillar makes a tractor, how many of its components are sourced directly from China? How many parts which Caterpillar purchases in Mexico, or Brazil, or Vietnam, or India--are assembled from precursors made in China?

What is GDP? Why is our GDP higher than theirs? Because, in general, we sell the finished products, they sell the commodity product. They sell the raw components, which allow our great corporations to make huge profits for their iconic brands.

IF a paint color, or a silicone sealer, or morphine, or penicillin, or Ford Escape, or iPhone, or Nike basketball shoe, requires a Chinese component to create an American finished product--

THEN the fact that we make more money than China does for our labor means very little.

If China shuts down, what great American Assembly lines shut down? I don't know the answer to this, and this is the only question that matters. The answer to this question can't be computed by calculation of GDP and general statements about size of our national phallus.

To answer this question will require going to each company and asking them directly, "how exposed are you?"

So far Apple and Proctor and Gamble have answered. "It's gonna hurt." Still waiting to hear from all the other great American companies.

"Procter & Gamble accesses 387 suppliers in China that ship more than 9,000 different materials to the company globally, affecting about 17,600 different finished product items. Each of these suppliers faces their own challenges in resuming operations, he said."

https://www.thestreet.com/investing/procter-gamble-material-impact-coronavirus

And here's what is really scary--our companies don't know either--not without substantial research. For example: when a component is purchased from India, who knows if the India assembly line shuts down without China.

[blueplum]

Iran update:
local politician in Qom says that there are more than 50 deaths, calls on higher ups to be honest with Iranian people

According to the clip of a o-ficial presser, Qom has set aside 80% of two hospitals to deal just with CV. Doctors and nurses taking care of CV will also be quarantined at the hospital. All public events, places closed. Don’t listen to anyone but the ministry of health so as not to frighten the public. Officially, 12 deaths. Harirchi says he will resign if the numbers aren’t reported accurately.

Al Jazerra:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H1A4QsER1TI

[greeneyes]

The Chinese military will participate in the US-led 2020 Cobra Gold military exercise in Thailand, which will feature amphibious landing drills and humanitarian relief exercises starting Tuesday (25 Feb 2020)
*************************************************************************************
This doesn’t sound like a very smart thing to do.

[blueplum]

Iran Update- Patient Zero took indirect flight to Iran
Iran believes that their patient zero was a merchant who flew to China and, with Iran already blocking flights from China, managed to find an indirect flight to get back to Iran. Iran patient zero has since died.

CBC/Radio Canada:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h7fAFB_lHqw

[JD_UTDallas]

Yes this virus is almost assuredly aerosol borne. Sadly the CDC still pearl clutches to the droplet transmission model why one should ask is the real question. Well I will tell you why an aerosol virus is nearly impossible to protect against without full positive pressure suits for anyone within tens of meters of the infected think outbreak the movie suits.
Everyone must not only wear them but also property wear them and get in and out of them without cross contamination. People also do not understand the concept of aerosol particles the simplest way to see them is on a cold day go outside and just breathe out , not sneeze not cough just calmly exhale...now see that smoke those are tens of thousands of micron sized water droplets that just condensed from the water vapor in your lungs each and everyone of those has tens to hundreds of virus in them if you are infected with a aerosol virus.
I spent time at Anniston Army depot working around the chemical weapons group we all had to be absolutely proficient in BL4/chem suits not MOP4 our gear was 3 levels up from that, all SCBA or portable electric positive pressure suits getting in and out of one without cross contamination is a skill that most health care workers do not have it takes weeks of practice. We used to take a bright blue dye syrup and drench the outside of the training suits then you had to get out of them without one speck of sticky anywhere on your body. No one I knew ever did it the first time or the second for that matter correctly.

[JD_UTDallas]

I did exactly the same things after my 4am Wal-Mart run, my shoes had outer booties disposal over them and two pairs of gloves entering, one on the way out and zero in the car. 90% isopropyl between. I have had P100 masks since Ebola hit big D in 14 and airtight lab goggles that look like regular glasses since then too. No one blinked an eye to see someone in a mask gloves and booties shopping I wasn’t the only one in a mask. All the packages and bags are in the garage they will all get a 500ppm bleach decontamination later today before coming inside.

[abigkahuna]

%

[deks]

Great description.

I wonder if these virus laden particles can travel in air currents across countries, continents, and oceans.

[blueplum]

they can piggyback on dust. Might want to use pledge or something that captures dust as you dust, and then burn the dust cloth. If you have a vacuum that uses bags, might want to lay in a small supply of those too. The bagless vacuums can be disinfected with a bleach spray

[blueplum]

update China;
what kind of truck is this? seems like a whole lot of chiefs looking on:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7dDv8JiYQpw

[JD_UTDallas]

The particles themselves can stay airborne almost indefinitely as micron to submicron particles are so weakly attracted by gravity the slightest fluid flow movement keeps them airborne. The particles themselves will dilute with increasing distance and at some point the viral load will be to low to cause infection. For a single infected human this will be 2 to 10 meters depends on minimum viral load to ensure infection, velocity of air movement and supply of fresh gasses vs recycled gasses basically outside in wind vs inside of a store or bus or airplane.

I have done plume studies of H2S and benzene gasses for the oil industry it’s one of the scientific services I provide as a consulting scientist.

[Paul R.]

No.

Even 100 ft. away, the dispersion is so great that the virus concentration is too low to infect you.

Plus viral particles usually don’t survive too long in aerosol form in an outdoor environment.

This thing is basically a “chest cold” virus that is rougher than usual for some people.

[Paul R.]

Oh, no doubt. The IP theft and such from less scrupulous companies is horrific, and as a sometimes designer, it PO’s me to no end.

Some smaller US companies dodge it, though, by carving out niches and never getting into big numbers. The Chinese generally don’t like to bother with small production runs.

[blueplum]

CPP reminds farmers they are not allowed to transport their produce, tens of thousands of ducks released to the wild as farmers have no feed deliveries

and, a pink bra for an obstinate man who refuses to wear a mask:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=69YhWanm1h0

[JD_UTDallas]

Coronavirus type Virus in airborne particles are exposed to dehydration of their lipid coatings and UV light from the sun both will inactivate it in hours if not minutes. The dehydration effective is why it is susceptible to alcohols like 70% EtOh or 70+ isopropyl

Oh and thank goodness Nebraska gets it they are a real BL4 hospital look at the full head gear and positive pressure masks. Those masks the passengers have are useless most are not even wearing them correctly straps all loose or half off, unfitted what a Cluster Fk

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8040239/amp/American-coronavirus-cases-rise-53-six-newly-diagnosed-people-Texas.html?__twitter_impression=true

[blueplum]

China has found a backdoor though Australia’s coronavirus travel ban to get their people back into Australia - China offering ‘tour packages’ for about $2700 that channels Chinese through Thailand and Cambodia

Australian medical assn president, Tony Bartone says it’s not a ‘flagrant violation’ and seems to place the burden on the universities and employers to make sure that the Chinese aren’t infected.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aQI5_DfnWJc

[PIF]

Uigur area just where they prefer to test weapons on expendables, unreliable enemies of the state

[PIF]

according to early reports if you clean your ears you remove protective wax and can contract - I don’t know more than that but many chinese were going full head cover. With this virus, ruling out a method of transmission before a lot more is known, is foolish.

[PIF]

call whatever suits you but so far bating 100%

[SheepWhisperer]

“280,000 – 500,000 hospitalizations
Deaths: 16,000 – 41,000
And yes, that’s just the flu.”

CRAP!!! Just imagine the Coronavirus cases added to that!!!
...........

And in the last few weeks, since the CDC isn’t testing for it, we don’t know how many of those “it’s just the flu” cases are in fact covid19