The Los Alamos researchers are still wrestling with their Covid-19 model, which is showing - incorrectly - the outbreak “exploding quite quickly in China,” Del Valle said. It is overestimating how many susceptible people become infected, probably because it’s not accurately accounting for social isolation and other countermeasures. Those seem to have reduced R0 toward the lower range of 2-to-5 that most modelers are using, she said.
What would happen to the RO if they
a) fed in legionnaire's data on transfer by airduct?
b) fed in data on transfer of infection on the cruise ship?
(seating chart - which cabins where)
given that a majority of residences in cities are high rises
Excerpt from the Los Alamos article:
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The Los Alamos researchers are still wrestling with their Covid-19 model, which is showing - incorrectly - the outbreak “exploding quite quickly in China,” Del Valle said. It is overestimating how many susceptible people become infected, probably because it’s not accurately accounting for social isolation and other countermeasures. Those seem to have reduced R0 toward the lower range of 2-to-5 that most modelers are using, she said.
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I would trust Los Alamos’ model before I would trust the ChiCom’s official numbers. Scary stuff.