Posted on 02/08/2020 3:06:57 PM PST by Vermont Lt
BREAKING: Epicenter of coronavirus outbreak reports 2,147 new cases and 81 new deaths.
If this is a dupe, please delete
A couple of sentences I should have included are: “The droplets and particles from a cough are obviously going to disperse broadly over any distance. There isn’t going to be much density after a few feet, much less tens or hundreds of feet. Think of a shotgun’s pellets fanning out.”
I’d be considering jumping ship right about now. Yikes.
Posting again for anyone who missed it:
CDC contact tells American couple on the ship “its very likely that the virus is actually in the air”
https://twitter.com/ZJasko/status/1225947496888852480
https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/p0206-coronavirus-diagnostic-test-kits.html
A CDC-developed laboratory test kit to detect 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) began shipping yesterday to select qualified U.S. and international laboratories. Distribution of the tests will help improve the global capacity to detect and respond to the 2019 novel coronavirus.The test kit, called the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) 2019-Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCov) Real-Time Reverse Transcriptase (RT)-PCR Diagnostic Panel (CDC 2019-nCoV Real Time RT-PCR), is designed for use with an existing RT-PCR testing instrument that is commonly used to test for seasonal influenza.
The CDC 2019 novel coronavirus test is intended for use with upper and lower respiratory specimens collected from people who meet CDC criteria for 2019-nCoV testing. The test uses a technology that can provide results in four hours from initial sample processing to result.
“Our goal is early detection of new cases and to prevent further spread of the coronavirus,” said CDC Director Robert R. Redfield, M.D. “Distribution of these diagnostic tests to state laboratories, U.S. government partners and more broadly to the global public health community will accelerate efforts to confront this evolving global public health challenge.”
The test kit has not been FDA cleared or approved, however distribution and use of the test kits follows the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) February 4, 2020, issuance of an Emergency Use Authorizationexternal icon (EUA). The tests are being shipped through the International Reagent Resource (IRR)external icon, a CDC-established mechanism that distributes laboratory reagents domestically and globally.
Initially, about 200 test kits will be distributed to U.S. domestic laboratories and a similar amount will be distributed to select international laboratories. Each test kit can test approximately 700 to 800 patient specimens. Additional test kits will be produced and made available for ordering in the future from the IRR. At this time, each laboratory that places an order will receive one 2019-nCoV test kit.
“There are some people in Louisiana who traveled from China during the course of this outbreak, said Kanter. They are being monitored and are in contact with the Department of Health.
“We have zero patients under investigation in Louisiana. We’ve had a lot of clinicians reach out with suspected cases, but none of them met the bar,” said Kanter.
With so few people coming in from the outbreak’s epicenter, increased travel to and from New Orleans during Carnival is not currently a concern for officials.”
Comment: it is crazy that clinicians are reaching out and are being told their case dose not “meet the bar” for a test. Obviously many of these doctors see something unusual enough to ask in the first place. Absent a test I hope the doctors know to get a CT scan and what to look for as was being done in China absent tests. Btw, someone in Japan said the tests are expensive, so I wonder if that is part of the holdback.
3 cases of #coronavirus in Singapore with no links to previous ones or travel history to China #nCoV2019
See the full video at this link:
https://youtu.be/bTg7wY32hMw
Those kind of cases definitely indicate a community outbreak that could keep sustaining itself, from what I’ve read (I think they call that a “seeded” event or something).
I saw a tweet from a guy who’s been posting a lot that he got an email from a school district in Michigan saying they have a student who has tested positive. If true I guess we’ll see that in tomorrow’s news. This stuff about the seeding came from an organization that charts this stuff and has been mentioned by Bill Gates - so they seem pretty legit.
Really important is the info about the fact that these “seeding events” can take about 10 weeks to mature - creating “clones” of the original outbreak, all things being equal. Which of course they won’t be in many places as the vigilance is way higher. But still - nobody is in the clear just because the USA doesn’t “pop” in the next 2 or 3 weeks with a bunch of cases. Will try to post their graphics on tomorrow’s thread.
For Pete’s sake can you imagine that? This should hit the cruise industry really hard. Who in their right mind would sign up for one right now?
I’d tape up my vents and crack my door if I had a balcony!
Steve Lookner
@lookner
Shandong province (100 million people) and Hebei province (75 million people) are keeping all schools closed until at least March 1.]
My guess is that they lack the broken glass I lungs in the CT.
I have run across that B4. Basically, a “low” number of virions entering one’s body can’t replicate. I suppose that explains why virus “survival” on a surface, for example, doesn’t necessarily mean the virus is still infectious: Infectiousness ends sooner than survival time. Granted I’m not sure I really understand what “survival” means if a virus particle can’t reproduce and isn’t even alive in the first place, by many definitions, even when it can reproduce.
I hunted around for an explanation of WHY a single viral particle can’t infect a cell*, but found no straightforward explanation. The time it takes the virus particles to replicate apparently takes longer in lower densities, and maybe that’s even a negative exponential function(?) or one with a sharp break downward (”replication threshold”) that heads toward effectively infinite time to replicate below a certain viral density. Then, given time to respond, the body’s defenses recognize the invaders & wipe ‘em out: No host cells are damaged and any toxins or other side effects from the mini-massacre are so minimal as to be undetectable, so no symptoms develop.
(I realize that’s a very crude & probably not totally accurate description, but I woke up early @ 3 a.m. & decided to check FR - what can I say?)
What I still don’t quite understand is WHY replication slows or doesn’t occur at all when the viral load is low. Is it because individual host cells are able to repulse the invaders when the invaders are few? (I suppose a crude analogy would be a castle under siege.) How does this happen?
The articles and papers I found online seem to gloss over this or are so technical they make my head swim - especially at 3-4 a.m. (Scottie never got to say “Dammit, Jim (Kirk), I’m an engineer, not a doctor!) I’m no virologist. But a good online article with an explanation of the “why” here would be great...
Speaking of which, some here may find the following of interest:
How Infection Works (Some very interesting info. here)
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK209710/
Which is part of:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK209706/pdf/Bookshelf_NBK209706.pdf (Really excellent information.)
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This discussion is related to my question:
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*And this one is interesting but highly techie in spots: It discusses “replication thresholds” and then seems to be saying that under specialized lab conditions maybe a single particle could cause infection:
Overcoming the Phage Replication Threshold: a Mathematical Model with Implications for Phage Therapy
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC137030/#r12
(I’m not too worried - those were very specialized lab tests.)
Ping. May be of interest if you have not seen this. Apologies if duplicate info.
Solid documentation?
(Sorry, it’s gotta be better than “naturalnews.com”.)
I’m guessing the Chinese SARS numbers were fudged & am curious as to how much and when, if that was determined.
At least airline toilet system are not so prone to leakage any more:
https://www.rd.com/advice/travel/flush-airplane-toilet/
(Humorous but informative article. No more bombings of “enhanced blue gel”.)
Jeepers!
Very cool maps!
I assume Chinese power plants and such are all or almost all still running.
I wonder what that looked like at this time last year?
There’s a commercial for $400 off a cruise ticket that we laughed at last night.
17% mort rate is Spanish Flu territory.
It’s important to recognize this % is not fixed, there are too many variables. With SF it was as low as 2% or as high as 25%.
In the present social pressure cooker of the USA, anything above 5% could be an economy crusher. Hood rats simply will not self quarantine, no matter what they are told.
China is unilaterally cancelling major commodity contracts, such as copper from 3rd world commodity-based nations. They know they are in for a depression. This will crush the economies of the commodity-supplying nations.
And factories are shutting down in Europe because parts are no longer flowing from their factories in China.
We are just in the opening inning of this game.
“Drifting 400 meters from the source as a aerosol ensures passing the infection inside any closed spaces. HVAC will circulate it though the building as the filters are inadequate for particles that small. It will be very hard to avoid.”
The cruise ships are very important lab experiments in this regard.
See post #26
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