As Coronavirus withers away, is Hubei revealed as China's dirty little secret?

Data reported by China, as translated and displayed in Wikipedia; various news reports | 2-6-2020 | Dangus

[dangus]

This is not how epidemics are supposed to spread. For a week in late January, more than half of newly reported Coronavirus infections were outside of Hubei (Wuhan's state). Now, fewer than one in five new cases are from Outside Hubei.

China took extremely drastic and apparently amazingly successful efforts to contain Coronavirus. So why do Chinese leaders act in apology and shame, like those dogs in YouTube videos? You can almost hear the scoldy housewife berating, "Did you do this Xi Jinping?" as his tail withers behind his legs, he circles around his doggy bed, and lifts his lip in a smile to show his teeth.

Several days ago, I noted on Free Republic that the rate of the spread of new infections was in decline; it was no longer exponential. The percentage growth in new cases had been between 30 and 69 per day, and it had dropped into a the low 20s. Yesterday, there were FEWER over cases than the day before, but I wouldn't read too much into a single day's data.

More interestingly is the spread outside Hubei: There were fewer new cases outside Hubei than there were a week ago. And then there's this: while in Hubei, the death rate is staggeringly high (over 3%), outside Hubei, only 14 people have died of it. (About 15,000 people have died of the flu this year in the U.S. alone.)

How could this be? This was hailed as the most contagious disease ever reported? And it emerged at the crossroads of the most populous empire ever, at the heat of a region containing most of the world's population, at the peak of the travel season. And yet, outside Hubei, there have been very few human-to-human transmissions at all. Remember that world-reknowned researcher who claimed he caught it in his eye?

So to recap the clues:

The Chinese have taken quick, and drastic measures to prevent the spread of the Coronavirus.

The spread of Coronavirus has impossibly slowed outside of Hubei, with a week of data confirming the trend.

Despite these efforts, the Chinese have been acting as if their poor response is an existential threat to their control.

The virus, outside of Hubei, seems not so insanely contagious or deadly as inside Hubei.

The solution: The Chinese have been open about Coronavirus, since it began to spread out from Hubei. But it was far worse within Hubei than they were willing to admit, so they took absolutely drastic measures to bury their mistakes. They had failed to recognize that Coronavirus wasn't a mere flu until thousands were sick. Within Hubei, they admitted only the worst cases were Coronavirus, allowing the resultant misleading statistics to make the virus look so deadly, and so easily spread.

So the good news: We're not all going to die of Coronavirus.

The bad news: China just learned it could respond to a biological attack in a way that America never could.

[FreedomPoster]

Trump’s campaign manager, Brad Parscale. He was head of digital in 2016. The adversarial Frontline interview with him is well worth taking the time to watch. He destroys the interviewer

https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/interview/brad-parscale/

[dangus]

>> That flattening happens every day about this time. <<

I’m not that stupid... As I’ve already written, it’s a flattening that’s been going on for a week, not just a part of a day.

On January 30, there were 785 cases outside Hubei. On February 5, there were 731.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_2019%E2%80%9320_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak

[dangus]

>> Zimbabwe monitoring 700 potential exposures. Africa will not be able to deal with this virus. <<

LOL! If there’s one thing Africa knows how to do, sadly, it’s respond to highly contagious plagues. “Potential exposures” means nothing.

[dangus]

>> Wondering if you posted this in vanity... <<

Actually, yes.

>> Is your background epidemiology or infectious disease control? <<

Nope. Biology degree, but since then, I’m in Information Systems. Just a numbers guy who likes to spot trends in data.

>> With all due respect, you provided no sourcing—no links... <<

As stated, I get my data from Wikipedia, after having checked that their sources are what they say they are. I don’t even speak Chinese.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_2019%E2%80%9320_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak

>> How are we to determine if your analysis is correct? <<

I have written nothing based on my own authority. I have posed questions based on data others have gathered. I have only stated my notions, and explained my reasoning for how I deduced them from the data I had.

[dangus]

>> Quarantines, stoppages of migrations and hygiene measures are the reasons for the lack of outbreak outside of China. <<

Yes. And the same is true WITHIN China. The stoppage of migration was stunning.

[dangus]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_2019%E2%80%9320_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak

>> Because they have been climbing by the thousands in Hubei. Are you taking into consideration the available beds? <<

Did you even read what I wrote? Like that Hubei went from being less than 50% of cases to more than 80%, which means this outbreak is becoming more and more localized (very unusual for an epidemic).

Since you asked,

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_2019%E2%80%

As I write, they seem to be adding the new data for today, with only about 3,000 new cases INCLUDING Hubei, which would be the second straight sizeable decrease in the number of new infections.

[dangus]

>> All numbers based on trustworthy CCP numbers - we all know the Chinese would never deliberately lie, right? <<

A fairly absurd comment, given the headline, don’t you think: “Is Hubei revealed as China’s dirty little secret?” The original post itself is an attempt at guessing what China’s lie is.

[Vermont Lt]

We’ll see in the next two weeks.

Shutting the cities down HAS to help. They keep shutting more down.

And in other parts of the world we will see in six weeks. The west is at least that far behind.

[samtheman]

Thanks

[winoneforthegipper]

Uh....no.

[PIF]

sarcasm is not your forte it seems.

[dangus]

Misdirected sarcasm... you seemed to be criticizing me for relying on Chinese numbers.

[Fury]

Re: 67 - thanks for this post.