Researchers say the coronavirus may be more contagious than current data shows

CNBC ^ | 02/04/2020 | Berkeley Lovelace, Jr.

[BenLurkin]

Data on the virus is changing by the day, and some infectious disease specialists say it will take weeks before they can see just how contagious it is. What they’re seeing so far is concerning and leading U.S. and international scientists to believe the virus is more contagious than the current data shows, according to interviews with epidemiologists, scientists and infectious disease specialists.

The disease is spreading quickly. China’s health minister, Ma Xiaowei, told reporters last month that there is evidence it’s already mutated into a stronger variation that is able to spread more easily among humans. World health officials know the respiratory disease is capable of spreading through human-to-human contact, droplets carried through sneezing and coughing, and germs left on inanimate objects. The illness is cable of spreading before symptoms show, and about 20% of patients become severely ill, leading to pneumonia and respiratory failure, health officials say.

The so-called R naught of the disease, a mathematical equation that shows how many people will get sick from each infected person, is around 2.2, according to a report last week from the New England Journal of Medicine. That means two or more people will catch the virus from a person who already has it, making it more infectious than the seasonal flu and the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic, which had an R naught of about 1.8 and killed at least 50 million people across the world. The current R naught of the new virus is lower than the 2003 SARS outbreak, which had an R naught of between 2 and 5.

World health officials caution that it may take months before the true R naught is known as more coronavirus cases come to light.

[lepton]

If anyone is sick, then most everyone is eventually exposed.

They need to be taken off the ship and separated into small groups.

[txnativegop]

are there sufficient food stocks on board for that number of people for a month? Unlikely, and much is still unknown about this bug, but there are reports that the disease has mutated into a STRONGER more contagious virus. who is to say that it will not mutate again and become stronger still?

[ETCM]

It is denoted "R0" and is pronounced "R nought."

Yes, and CNBC looks very amateur writing it as R naught. Tell folks how it's spoken once and move on. What's next, spelling words by their phonetic sounds? I guess they know their audience is mostly in Rio Linda...

[steve86]

Supplies would have to be delivered and waste pumped off the ship and disposed of as hazardous waste. People in critical condition from any cause would be airlifted or boat shuttled off and then treated in quarantine.

Of course the virus could mutate into something even more virulent. So could some unrelated virus that’s in your house right now.

[ProtectOurFreedom]

I saw that “naught” and forgot to write about it. Amateurish, indeed. But not surprising because most “journalists” stopped taking science in the fourth grade, way before subscripts were introduced.

Another marvelous homophone of the English language!

[prophetic]

I've always had a aversion to going on cruise ships as just 1 sick passenger will quickly spread their sickness across the thousands on the ship.

A few relatives went on a cruise for the Christmas holidays, but I told them good luck & enjoy the trip!

[BenLurkin]

Are you saying it should be pronounced “R zero”?

[UCANSEE2]

I wonder if an infected ship can ever be successfully disinfected. Or will they have to scrap the ship?

You can't kill a virus. Technically, they aren't even 'alive'.

[ETCM]

"Are you saying it should be pronounced “R zero”?

No, I'm saying, write it correctly. Tell your readers how to say it once, then assume they understand. For example, if you were describing a "squared" number to someone who wasn't expected to understand, you might say R² , pronounced R Squared, once. From that point on, you would just use R². Repeated using "R naught" is like repeatedly using "R squared".

[exDemMom]

Yes, it can be disinfected. There are a number of ways to disinfect large areas. What do you think they do in hospitals?

Even without disinfection, the virus survives a limited amount of time oitside of a body. Simply mothballing the ship for a week or so would allow the virus to die.

[metmom]

Infectious Disease Ping

[HollyB]

Oh wow. That’s a lot of potential carriers. My son is in Japan now and will be back and forth from there and S Korea all month.

I gave him lots of masks.

[HollyB]

Sink the ship? That sounds pretty drastic. These are human beings on that ship. The same ones we fight for from abortion. Their life is not less important because they are an adult now.

Plus, It’s not deadly for everyone. Not everyone will die after being exposed.

[HollyB]

The virus won’t live forever on a surface.

[null and void]

NASA transcripts referred to “chief horses” puzzling until you figured out they actually said g-forces...

[null and void]

Bring Out Your Dead

Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.

The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.

So far the false positive rate is 100%.

At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.

*sigh* Such is life, and death...

If a quarantine saves just one child's life, it's worth it.

[PIF]

Last month the R0 value was put at 3.8 which many vehemently disagreed with at the time.

[mdmathis6]

the 10 could infect 22 then 45(67 total sick) them 91(158 total) ans so forth...oh what a nightmare for those on the ship.

[PIF]

The only quibble I have is: what is the **normal** body processing rate for that undertaker per day?

[PIF]

Perhaps they are taking the Chinese idea and sealing them in the cabin with boards, bars, nails and, screws