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Posted on 02/03/2020 4:20:57 PM PST by GulfMan
Yep the “25%” number is off (high)...because the “reported cases” number is way off...thousands and thousands of Chinese cases are at home/at the rural village and not at the hospital to be counted (undocumented cases). Doing math to get “mortality rate” or “% that are serious” is highly suspect at this point.
Except that they have PPE, negative pressure ICU, and ECMO machines. Not as good as the US for sure, but they were absolutely overrun and overwhelmed quickly.
Healthcare is only as good as it is AVAILABLE. Many hospitals in Atlanta are already close to full with flu and other cases. My son at Grady today said they have triage tents outside. I would guess even 1000 patients would overwhelm the system.
*1000 patients in Atlanta.
Keep in mind that mild cases would not even go to a doctor, and thus not show up on statistics.
...
True, and Dr. Fauci mentioned that, but it wouldn’t make a good panic inducing headline that some Freepers fall for every time.
People should watch the entire interview if they want to calm down.
Our flu season is going full bore. Using the rate of spread in China, we’re looking at the brunt of caronavirus hitting us what late March or April? Flu wave ebbs, caronavirus hits.
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What is the genetic susceptibility of this particular coronavirus? Many Westerners live and work in Wusan. How many of them have become infected or have died?
Well, we know that the young British (white) lad, who works in Wuhan and contracted the virus, recovered by drinking a toddy with honey.
As for total make up, including Westerners....I have no idea.
I questioned it, when an *expert* on the CNBC coronavirus special said we should expect it to heighten here, in April.
Maybe I heard that right?
Between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths annually since 2010 - So would say they all were in ICU before hand, also between 140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations - So im not worried, yet!
Thank you for the ping, metmom.
Most of those modern pieces are in Beijing
Look at the markets and general conditions in Wuhan
Bring Out Your Dead
Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.
The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.
So far the false positive rate is 100%.
At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.
*sigh* Such is life, and death...
If a quarantine saves just one child's life, it's worth it.
One might, speaking as an agnostic, one just might!
I think you have a pretty good handle on this.
“So, we would expect to see the mortality raise as the hospital system gets overwhelmed.”
At this moment in time those are the numbers the public are being given to play with which do not count people who did not seek help just those sick enough to need help nor does it count those that recovered and nobody checked in on them... it is an ugly picture, that will change but it gives you the reason for the extraordinary measures. If you want a better feel Separate China and the rest of the countries as a whole and at the moment other countries are doing better because basically, badly hit cities in China have overrun their medical ability to care for and count and the rest of us have not. This virus is extremely virulent and is basically a game of numbers to over run the system. Keeping it from spreading with its long infection rate before symptoms show is the problem.
With bars on the windows and doors that open only from the outside..
Thats not a hospital, its internment for the infectious
I think your comments are reasoned. I wouldn’t disagree with them. If the true mortality rate is closer to the work-up I presented to you, it would make a lot more sense quarantining areas.
Not all nations in the (outside China) group have the greatest medical care, but you touched on the fact their health care system isn’t overwhelmed at this point.
BTW, they had people jumping off bridges today when the hospital rejected them. They killed themselves to keep from bringing it back home to their families. That tells me the people have seen this thing in action and know how dangerous it is to their families. I do not think I will ever be able to forget the tragedy and sacrifice of those actions.
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