In the last three days, the number of identified cases outside of China has increased from 65 to 111.
I think we were talking about our not being able to quantify the number of deaths in China, or the percentages of the mortality rate there. That’s true.
What we can do is document those who have been identified with the disease outside of China.
We can then reference what we know about them.
So far of the 111 known cases outside of China, the mortality rate is 0.00%. No one has died of Coronavirus outside of China.
That could change, in fact I’d be surprised if it doesn’t. Still, all we have to address is what we know. And so far that 111 cases outside of China is all we can say we know for sure.
The cases outside of China would be people healthy enough to travel at least so there is that bit of preselection of the sample. I suppose once transmission starts to take place outside of China things might change from that sample.
I think what happened is this: The outbreak was recognized in early December. The investigation, and the announcement, were delayed because the Party and the government were not prepared to respond.
I met someone who was in Wuhan December 25-26, and this person told me the large number of ill people and the connection with the Seafood-Wild Animal Market was well known to all.
Transmission was amplified all during December and early January, the somewhat primitive system got overwhelmed, treatments became increasingly unavailable, people started to run as they always do in epidemics, and now 31/33 provinces are infected.
There must be, as there always is, a Party Hospital in Wuhan. Bet the death rate is lower there.
I’ve looked at the genome map, it’s perfectly plausible that this is a naturally evolved virus (that doesn’t prove it, but believing it has a natural origin is certainly plausible).
As you suggest, death rates in the West will be lower, maybe zero, but lower for sure.
Containment is possible here, but everybody has to be on their toes and politicians have to stay out of it - that is also possible, but I don’t know if that’s how to bet.
And, for anybody who has read this far, a non-fitted N95 mask is more dangerous that a surgical mask.