Posted on 01/28/2020 3:08:48 PM PST by 11th_VA
Thats great.
What about Los Angeles flights from Beijing/Shanghai???
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If they aren’t flying planes in, there won’t be any there to depart.
WHO will declare a Public Health Emergency tomorrow. They can no longer kick the can down the road. They have delayed for a couple of days.
Making the declaration will trigger protocols for international corporations and different companies.
They are trying to give them time to prepare for it.
Saw this headline in my mailbox:
Google temporarily shutting China offices
New numbers should be coming in the next 3-4 hours
keep in mind all the doom prediction models assume everyone can be tested...they do not have enough test kits to test millions...
I am keeping an eye on the number of new deaths in Hubei province....don’t really care about the new cases
so assuming they aren’t going back and retesting deceased from weeks ago...
for example ...if they have 400 new cases and 25 deaths.. I assume none of the 400 new cases walk into the hospital then die in an hour...the deaths are from the backlog of people in serious or critical condition
so in theory the more people in serious or critical condition right now....the more deaths X days from now..as you can see the number of new deaths the last 3 days is very consistent 24-25 yet the number of new cases varies
1-26: 371 new cases and 24 new deaths in Hubei province, China
1-27 Hubei province reports 1,291 new cases and 24 new deaths
1-28 840 new cases and 25 new deaths in Hubei province, China.
So the Question is what is the “X” day ..that is what is the average number of days a patient dies after being in serious or Critical condition?
as you may notice the death rate outside of Hubei province is very low that can be from 2 reasons
1) Hubei province cases are the worse cases and many mild cases aren’t counted. outside that area they are tested everyone now so more mild cases are counted
and/or
2) the “X day” above is long, so if it is 7 days the reason why the Hubei province death right is much higher is simple because people have been infected longer
I hope it is more #1 then #2
I wrote the above very fast so I hope it makes sense
it would be nice to be able to access public records that show total deaths for all categories going back a year. we need to understand the total delta in all deaths.
i am sure there are other folks that would have been marginally sick who lacked standard care because of this crises.
What happens in Vegas may not stay in Vegas.
I agree with you. Lancet study was something like 14%.
Hope so. The Time is at hand.
It was like this guy’s special skill. I got to where I could roughly tell region, sometimes. He was 100% every time. We tested him. One of the nicest guys in that office too. I think it may have been a combo of facial structure, shoulder ‘make’ and gestures. Dunno, he couldn’t give more specifics than that.
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