Posted on 01/28/2020 3:08:48 PM PST by 11th_VA
131 Dead, 5564 Cases
marker
Are you kidding? MANY people go to the ER with the flu, and some even for bad colds. Some flu victims get admitted to the hospital (usually due to the pneumonia you mention.) That’s personal observation - I spent way more time(s) in ER’s with my parents (not for flu) than I care to think about.
But, in any case, in my book, going to the ER is going to the hospital. And I’ve been in ER’s with 2+ hour waiting for patients with non-severe symptoms. (I’m not saying they didn’t feel like crap or did not need attention - they just were not in immediate danger.)
Now, many people go to walk in clinics and such, because getting in to PCP’s on short notice, these days, is near impossible. But many people rather go to the ER (how much do you trust the Wally World Clinic? - hmmm...), not all walk in clinics are 24/7, etc.
Do all those sick people who go to the ER need to? Probably not. But, it goes the other way, too. My brother nearly died because he didn’t get himself to the ER as soon as he should have. The one time I was there for myself, I nearly passed out waiting to get in for treatment. (As it was, I was too weak & disoriented to walk - they had to wheel me in.) (VERY nasty stomach virus.) Mostly it’s men who tend to not go in as soon as they should...
That said, I do agree with the original point: With an illness with a wide variance in severity of symptoms, and mild cases could be mistaken for a “common cold”, or vice versa, the number of infected is most difficult to determine, especially as the disease spreads into the population.
Wrong about what? You’re nuts.
This is what I'm saying. The influenza virus (a seasonal virus) is, for the most part, only present in the hemisphere which provides the more favorable seasonal conditions for it. It can only mutate in the hemisphere where it is physically present (OBVIOUSLY).
At least they have masks. All of the masks at the stores in my area (and on Amazon) are out of stock. (I was going to buy more - but I guess the 50 I have on hand will have to last until the stock on Amazon improves.)
I still have a few boxes left over from californiaburning.
update on flights out of Wuhan today - US and Japan (UK to fly Thurs). Pilots in hazmat suits:
“The UK’s move to evacuate its citizens follows flights chartered by the Japanese government and the US.
The flight to Tokyo landed Wednesday morning, with four on board taken to hospital, while the US-government flight is set to land in Alaska in about 20 minutes from now (a little before 6.30am GMT).”
That’s a mess of ‘fight or flight’ in action right there.
Denial breeds distrust breeds fear breeds violence. Some of that violence will turn inward. If their govt doesn’t start communicating 24/7 expect a spike in suicides as cultural tunnelvision, deaths of relatives and food shortages, rockets elderly emotions to the edge.
I think that 900,000 is hospital ADMISSIONS, not "how many went to the hospital." No?
You have to have a pretty darn bad case of the flu (pneumonia, VERY high fever, extreme dehydration, etc.) to be admitted to the hospital, but most anyone who goes to the ER can get looked at (maybe not quickly if there are others who appear worse off). They will say they "went to the hospital", esp. if the ER is in the same building (every hospital around here).
OTOH, since many hospital admissions are NOT urgent or critical, many lay people will consider treatment by an ER to in SOME cases be as significant as a hospital admission, muddying the waters a bit. That "E" in ER still carries some weight, as indeed it sometimes should. One really bad night a few years ago, I watched my Dad fight for his life for several hours in an ER -- no one can tell me he was not in worse shape than all but a handful of those admittees in the hospital.
US Flight, now on the ground in Alaska, will NOT land at Ontario airport:
“The flight carrying 240 American citizens from Wuhan has just landed in Anchorage, Alaska, after a journey of nine-and-a-half hours. Those passengers will now fly on to March Air Force Base in California.”
same guardian link as above
The FDA vs Purell is based on a study that used mucus (wet) contamination on the hands. The CDC has a bulletin (old) that recommends washing your hands is the best (for 20 seconds with warm soapy water). Also if your hands are visibly dirty (which would include mucus I imagine).
For “clean” hands the CDC recommends at least 60% alcohol hand sanitizer for 20 seconds. Even the recent study says that is good for viruses that are dry. Such as would be found on door knobs, railings, etc. I see that the generic stuff I have is 70%. That is also the recommend percentage for cleaning wipes for dry surfaces.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html
Yes - sorry I wasn’t more clear. The above chart doesn’t show last year’s data, but provides a reference of how many are estimated to have gotten the flu, how many hospitilized, and how many died going back many years (to 2008 iirc?)
2017-18, and 18-19 were very high years for flu.
I seem to recall that last season they were saying the vaccine was “off” a bit from what they had thought the flu strain would be, so it was a bad year for the flu.
That's for the entire year, right?
Anybody know what the estimated number of "initially infected" might be for Wuhan at the start of their statistical flu season?
I seem to recall that last season they were saying the vaccine was “off” a bit from what they had thought the flu strain would be, so it was a bad year for the flu.
Definite agreement on that. IIRC the late fall weather was unusually cold, at least around here (mid-South), which likely did not help. (Same this year too.) How well the flu vaccine is working this year I've not really heard. But so far the situation at my daughter's middle school has not been as bad, this year, as last, and I believe that to be true of other area schools too. None have cancelled any classes that I know of.
The converse is also true
If the Chinese are holding back on reporting the number that have the virus, why would they not also hold back on reporting the number of DEAD? If that number is <10X than they report, the death rate is likely <10X higher.
Do not play statistics games with the CCP, they will always ‘win’.
Amateur epidemiology...
What bothers me is that, from the reports coming out daily, and tracking quite consistently since Saturday, the deaths vs. treated and released (or “cured”) is running near 55%... This is a subset of a subset, but maybe means you don’t want to be admitted to a chicom hospital with this stuff.
UPDATE: British Airways has suspended all flights to and from mainland China
World Health Organization to hold press conference on coronavirus at 3 p.m. Geneva time (9 a.m. ET). It will be broadcast live on
@WHO
BREAKING: Kazakhstan to suspend all buses, trains, and flights with China due to coronavirus - gov’t
ANCHORAGE, Alaska (AP) — A plane evacuating more than 200 Americans from a Chinese city at the center of a virus outbreak continued Wednesday on to Southern California after everyone aboard passed a health screening test in Anchorage, where the aircraft had stopped to refuel.
Two Japanese evacuated from Wuhan [on first evacuation flight] have pneumonia symptoms, second flight being dispatched
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