Posted on 10/29/2019 7:15:29 AM PDT by dangus
Will the American raid Conference USA? The Mountain West?
The American is already stronger than the Atlantic Coast Conference, and arguably, the Pac-12. By most computer rankings and by most top-25 votes, the American has 5 of the top 30 football teams in the nation (Cincinnati, Central Florida, Navy, Memphis, Southern Methodist). They may replace their worst two teams with two more top-25 teams. That would be 7 of the top 30 football teams. Three of the four weakest teams in this new conference would be among the largest universities in the nation, and two of those among the fastest growing (Houston and South Florida).
What we know is that Connecticut (UConn) is leaving. Eastern Carolina University (ECU) has cut salaries and their interim chancellor's reason for saying that they were NOT leaving was simply they couldn't afford UConn's exit fee. That's a pretty direct signal that they'd be willing to leave if the American would forgive the exit fee, and it would be unfathomable why they wouldn't if they could swap ECU for a much better program.
But who would the American get? Some would write Boise State off (6-2, #21) because it changed it's mind about joining the American when it was still the Big East. But that was a program which had just lost three teams, and seven in the past decade. The American is now stable, would eligible for a playoff, and stronger than ever. And it could also steal one or two of Boise State's biggest rivals, San Diego State (7-1, #25) or Air Force (6-2, #29 according to Massey's meta-ratings). Stealing two of the Mountain West's teams would leave little high-level competition. Air Force could join Navy, and would be closer than Boise State or San Diego State.
Among teams from the other Mid-major, Lousiana Tech (6-1) and UAB (6-1) have been suggested. Either would reunite with several former conference rivals. But neither are presently THAT good or likely to get much better; both of their markets seem safely under control of SEC teams.
Any top-25 program would be tempting, and Appalachian State (7-0, #20) has grown up so quickly, only recently joining the FBS. It's a larger university than you might think, and given the weakness of UNC, NC State and Tennessee, could represent the Southern Appalachia pretty well... but it's no UNC, NC State or Tennessee, and it doesn't have a convenient airport, or a huge metro area. In other words, Appy State could represent simply swapping yesterday's ECU for tomorrow's.
BYU has been suggested. As private schools go, it's enormous and has an enormous following. But they're just not that good, lately. Still a BYU-Boise State rivalry would be fun. And maybe the American only needs 6 top-30 teams.
The American's basketball needs comment, too. The loss of UConn won't actually mean much. Last year, Houston, Cincinnati, UCF and Temple were well-deserving tournament teams, and UConn wasn't. In fact, losing ECU and UConn will mean shedding two of their three weakest basketball teams from last year; yeah, the conference is that strong that UConn was the third WEAKEST. None of the potential new teams will be likely to make it to the tournament in any given year, but the American is already stronger than the Pac-12, for instance.
(I would NOT foresee BYU ditching Gonzaga and St. Mary's in the West Coast Conference; no-one benefits from the massively increased travel times.)
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Could UConn help the Big East raid the Atlantic 10... or the Atlantic Coast???
Could UConn going to the Big East cause some further realignment? A 12th team could allow the Big East to form divisions. That would be big, because these are smallish colleges that happen to be geographically split into an East and a West; the six Eastern teams (Providence, St. John's, Georgetown, Villanova, Connecticut, Seton Hall) are the rivals from the original Big East, minus the Westernmost (Pitt) and Northernmost (Syracuse) and Easternmost (BC) members. The Western teams are centered around Chicago, reaching from Cincinnati to Omaha. They just need a 6th Western team to balance the 6 Eastern teams.
Some have suggested Gonzaga. The Big East is looking for expanded media markets; while Gonzaga would definitely increase the Big East's overall quality of play in the immediate term, who wants to play in Spokane?
If the Big East is looking to raid the mid-major Atlantic 10, Dayton is the best of the Catholic Universities. Saint Louis is a huge Catholic university that's appeared on the cusp of becoming a good basketball team, but hasn't... yet. Saint Bonaventure from outside Buffalo isn't impossible.
But why think small conferences? Despite a down year, the Big East is usually competitive with the ACC in men's basketball. And in Women's basketball, adding UConn will give more respect to top 25 teams Marquette and DePaul, and could be just what Butler needs to become a tournament-quality team. Do you know who's from smack dab in the middle of Marquette, DePaul and Butler?
Yeah, I'm talking Notre Dame. Notre Dame didn't choose the ACC over the Catholic 7 over just men's basketball. Without Connecticut, Rutgers or Louisville, the Big East didn't offer any competitiveness in Women's basketball, where Notre Dame has been a powerhouse. UConn has had their biggest recruiting year ever, just since rejoining the Big East, and looks to regain its dominance.
Notre Dame's a terrible fit for the ACC, whose Southeastern fans don't care a whit about Notre Dame, and which has zero other mid-western teams. The closest you get is Louisville. Notre Dame belongs in the Big East, where its rivals will be in Chicago, Milwaukee, Philly, D.C., New York, New Jersey... not in North Carolina. She should be the queen who loves her fellow cat'licks who simply don't field football teams, not the priss who considers herself too good to soil herself with the likes of (the obviously far better) Clemson.
Speaking of bad fits, I doubt it would happen, but it would sort of make sense for Boston College to leave the ACC... or at least in sports besides football. It's puzzling why the ACC wanted so badly to get BC, except simply in the hopes of killing off Big East football. (Which of course, it did, but the American born in its ashes is stronger than ever.) It's not like BC is such a powerhouse that the ACC would be loathe to let them go. It's simply a matter than BC fits among Northeastern Catholic colleges, and not among Deep-South football schools. And frankly, a 15-team ACC is simply an ugly, sprawling mess. A little trim wouldn't hurt.
Teams can now use the transfer pipeline to build teams quickly. Two seasons out they may retain some of the talent pool but the big programs have deep reserves.
Kansas is a case in point.
This however is not a permanent solution and re-alignment isn’t warranted.
Are you saying you expect the Big East and the American will stay with 11 teams?
ACC sports were enjoyable decades ago when UNC, Duke, Wake Forest, NC State, Maryland, Clemson, Virginia, and South Carolina comprised the conference. The addition of Georgia Tech, Florida State, and Virginia Tech had some logic given their regional proximity. Going beyond to BU, Pitt, Syracuse, Miami and Notre Dame made no sense other than money.
This game used to be based mainly on rivalries, then it changed to conferences when the playoffs started, now it has shifted to player focused and talent can move anywhere anytime. Not much different from the pro's.
Enjoy it now, 10 years from now when you say College Football, people will say What's that?
That can’t happen soon enough. The powers that be have ruined their games. If teams are nothing more than professional development operations, and conferences are nothing more than competing national television consortia, there is no longer any rationale for retaining the link to academic institutions.
Important stuff!
I have no interest in Football, Baseball, Basketball or any other sport, until they have an interest in supporting, not disparaging, my country.
I believe you hit the nail on the head.
I used to love to watch the “Old” ACC with the Tobacco Road schools - UNC, Duke, Wake, NC State, Virginia - fighting it out during basketball season, but adding all the Big East, Miami, ND really ruined it.
The funny thing is that the ACC could just split back into two divisions, featuring the Old ACC and the Plundered Big East, consisting of BC, Louisville, Virginia Tech, Miami, Syracuse, Pitt and add-ons Cincinnati, Memphis.
The ironic problem is that I’m not sure you could get Cincy and Memphis to join. And they’re the only reason the Plundered Big East would agree to their division.
The biggest threat to the current landscape of college football is the looming world of open cash payments to players over and beyond scholarships.
There is no power 6.
There is a power 5.
>> There is no power 6. <<
That’s the point. *pounds head on desk*
So? Build or expand a regional airport that can handle mid-size jets. Penn State did it back in the '80s when they expanded Midstate Airport. Prior to that visiting teams would have to fly to either Pittsburgh or Harrisburg and bus 2 - 3 hours to get to Happy Valley.
Appalachian State has a good football team, but I’d hate to see an entire airport built for it.
“. . . but adding all the Big East, Miami, ND really ruined it.”
Moving the ACC basketball tournament out of Greensboro didn’t help either. I notice they have trouble filling basketball tournament seats at the northern locations. I wonder if the TV audience is down as well.
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