Posted on 08/30/2019 11:29:11 AM PDT by Signalman
A Zogby/Wall St. 24/7 poll released on Monday showed President Trump slightly ahead of the top 2020 Democratic hopefuls. The online poll, conducted August 9-12, surveyed 897 likely voters and has a margin of error of +/- 3.3%.
In a head-to-head race, Trump topped former Vice President Joe Biden by a margin of 46% to 45%. 9% were not sure. Sanders topped Trump with suburban women (45% to 36%), Hispanics (52% to 43%), African Americans (77% to 17%), Generation Z voters, those people born from 1995 to 2010 (66% for Sanders, Trump’s support was not available), medium-city voters (53% to 38%), and small-city voters (47% to 43%).
The two were tied among independents (39%), and large-city voters (46%).
In a head-to-head race, Trump topped Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) by a 44% to 42% margin. 14% were not sure.
Harris outperformed among millennials (51% to 32%), Generation Z (56% to 26%), Hispanics (58% to 34%), suburban women (46% to 37%), and interestingly, among all women (42% to 39%).
Trump led among independents (41% to 35%), men (50% to 41%), small-city voters (46% to 40%), and suburban voters (45% to 40%).
In a race against Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), Trump was ahead by a 45% to 43% margin. 13% were not sure.
The poll also showed Trump besting South Bend, IN Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D) by a 45% to 42% margin, with 14% unsure.
Perhaps the most interesting results concerned “silent” Trump supporters. Nearly half of those surveyed, 49% (22% strongly and 27% somewhat strongly), agreed with the following statement:
Even though I tell people I do not approve of Donald Trump, I personally agree with him on certain issues.
Zogby notes that the percentage of likely voters who believe they have to “silently” support Trump has increased to 49% from 40% in the last year.
There are many Democrats who do not support the far left platforms of the current field of 2020 candidates. For example, the majority of Americans oppose open borders, providing free medical care to illegals, late term abortions, and the Green New Deal. And some are afraid to voice their opinions.
I find the concept of silent support to be fascinating. The fact that it’s a serious question from a major pollster speaks volumes about the state of American politics. (Note: If any readers are interested in looking at the breakdown of where various groups and sub-groups stand in regard to silent support, please scroll down.)
This poll was last conducted in May and at that time, the President was trailing the top 2020 Democratic candidates. His position has improved considerably since then. He is now in a statistical dead heat with Biden and Sanders and is seen as narrowly defeating Warren, Harris and Buttiegieg. The poll found that Trump “has made in-roads with independents, suburban voters, urban men, and, urban parents” and has “increased support among his base — men, consumer blocs, older voters, and union voters.”
Most sub-groups who typically support the president were more agreeable to the idea of hiding their support Trump but there were some surprises among the demographics we surveyed.
The groups most likely to “strongly and somewhat” agree they privately support Trump on certain issues were: likely voters living in the East (56% at least somewhat agree/44% at least somewhat disagree). Likely voters living in the West were more disagreeable (45% at least somewhat agree/55% at least somewhat disagree).
Other groups who agreed they “silently” support the president included workers employed full time (55% agree/45% disagree), NASCAR fans (63% agree/37% disagree), union workers (63% agree/38% disagree), weekly Amazon shoppers (60% agree/40% disagree), weekly Walmart shoppers (56% agree/44% disagree), Hispanics (64% agree/36% disagree), NRA members (77% agree/23% disagree), investor class voters (60% agree/40% disagree), and self-identified creative class voters (57% agree/43% disagree).
There were differences in the level of agreement when it came to age, gender and where voters lived. A majority of millennials aged 18-29 (52% agree/48% disagree) agreed they support Trump on certain issues in private, while older voters aged 50-64 felt the opposite (43% agree/57% disagree). Men (54% agree/46% disagree) were more likely to feel compelled to hide their support for the president on certain issues than women (44% agree/56% disagree).
The sub-groups most likely to disagree with “silently” supporting Donald Trump were Democrats (69% disagree/31% agree), liberals (70% disagree/31% agree), voters divorced/widowed/separated (62% disagree/38% agree), and voters not in unions (53% disagree/47% agree).
Trump outperformed Biden among voters aged 65+ (56% to 40%), men (53% to 42%), independents (44% to 36%), small-city voters (47% to 43%), and suburban voters (45% to 44%).
Biden topped Trump among millennials (50% to 38%), women (48% to 39%), suburban women (50% to 35%), large-city voters (46% to 45%), African Americans (74% to 21%), and Hispanics (48% to 46%).
Although Biden won among Hispanics, 46% is an impressive number for a Republican candidate.
In a head-to-head race, Trump led Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) by a 45% to 44% margin, a statistical tie. 11% were not sure.
“I thought he was down by ten to every D candidate?”
nope. he was down 20-40 against every D candidate!
“I predict Trump will win bigger this time than in 2016.”
agreed. and i’m already maxing out every bet about this on predictit.org that i can ...
I wonder how accurate Zogby was in 2016.
All I can say is that Zogby is my favorite pollster at this time, much better than Rasmussen.
Praying for 4 More Years To KAG!
Nevertheless way too many morons, hacks, propagandized and evil people gravitate towards voting DemoRat. Like moths to a flame.
This poll shows the same result as the other polls published this week. The only difference was that the earlier polls were registered voter polls, this one was likey voters.
The difference is exactly what you would expect.
Trump is doing just fine and the media know it. You can also expect the media to do everything that they can do to deceive the public about the real popularity for Trump.
I beg to differ. I have a “Build the wall Crime will fall” bumper sticker on my car and a “Trump Pence 2020” sign in my yard. Of course, I am 70 years of age, live in south central Kansas and carry concealed most of the time while out of the house.
And if asked I will assert my support for the President. Silence is for snowflakes and wimps.
There no chance Trump gets 43-46% of the Hispanic vote and 17-21% of the black vote and doesn’t win in a landslide.
Why post polls that you know are bovine excrement! These polls are always intentionally biased to favorof the Democratic Crime syndicate.
Trump has to be ecstatic. The Democrats are running people that are never going to beat him.
Their entire cockamamie platform consists of every reason NOT to vote for a Democrap:
<><> forcing Normal Americans to work so that Dems can be “the good guys”
<><> Dems showering illegal aliens w/ taxpaid freebies buys a lot of votes.
<><> Democraps want the US in obeisance to the dictates of the transnational global elite at the UN;
<><> these elites demand the US suck up to the few foreigners still traveling first class over the border;
<><> and we should shower the Third World w/ billions for climate control to keep it from being a degree hotter.
We live in a diverse country. I’m glad there are people like you and your area still around.
Where I live someone investigating the truck fire or beating would say “He had it coming. What was he thinking?” if someone had shown or expressed a Trump support view. Not kidding. I am behind enemy lines. At least 80% and more Dem vote in every election since 1960s.
Would the French WWII have said “Hey. Come and get me. I hate you lousy Germans and I want the Allies to win. So there.” No. When this war gets going I will make my contribution to the best of my abilities and talents.
In other words, Trump is going to blast their sorry asses out of the saddle!
The MSM told us that the 1980 election was “too close to call” , we know how that turned out.
The strongholds of NY and CA overvote dems by millions. That is one reason a poll does not work anymore. It is an electoral college assessment simple polls just can’t deal with anymore.
DK
After Hillary’s glorious, poll-predicted victory in 2016, I believe in polls!!!
The next Presidential election will be much the same as 2016. We need to get out the vote in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina and Florida to win again.
I will be doing my part in Pennsylvania. What will all the rest of you be doing?
JoMa
“We need to get out the vote in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina and Florida to win again.”
Definitely. Because that’s where they’ll be concentrating their extreme cheating.
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