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I’ve been thinking on the China situation for a few weeks now. They are in a very precarious situation.

On the one hand they have introduced the “good life” to their people over the past 30 years. There is an entire generation who had no siblings that have been doted on while find out how the rest of the world lives.

In the last 5 years they have started cutting back access to the rest of the world while at the same time their economy has started to slow down.

Hong Kong is the least of their worries in my mind it will only draw away resources should they continue to focus on it. The real concern in my mind is Shanghai which is central to the economy, very populous, and has a very western feel to it.

Should Trump enact the ‘77 Economic Powers Act and halt all US business transactions with China then the communists will begin to collapse. What comes out the other side will be hard to tell as “the people” have no weapons...but they have the ability to create them in all of those factories spread across the country. I wouldn’t be surprised if they are already being quietly made.

It could, unfortunately, turn into another Warring States era with several regions either trying to separate or vying for control. There are 5 main spoken languages and several differences in culture. The economic switch could start so much internal strife that we could just do containment and let it unravel on its own.

Uighurs, Tibet, Hong Kong, Falun Gong (Taiwan of course)....lots of internal strife without the economic stuff.