Posted on 07/24/2019 10:19:28 AM PDT by SMGFan
The New York Times' Nate Cohn penned an analysis piece that, bucking conventional trends, said that there is an opportunity for higher voter turnout in 2020 to actually benefit President Trumps odds of being reelected.
The UpShot analysis found that instead of the traditional wisdom that higher voter turnout just helps Democrats, there are opportunities and risks for both parties. The author based his findings on voter registration files, the validated turnout of 50,000 respondents to New York Times/Siena College pre-election surveys in 2018, polls of unregistered voters, and census data.
High voter turnout typically favors Democrats because younger, nonwhite, and less wealthy voters (who tend to vote more for Democrats) are underrepresented at the polls. But Trump has a base of support among less educated white voters, who are also underrepresented at the polls.
After the Democrats won the House in the 2018 midterm elections, flipping dozens of GOP-held seats, some saw that as a harbinger for 2020, although typically the party not in control fares better during midterm contests. Cohn found that Trumps white working-class supporters from 2016 were likely to have not voted in 2018. Although, he contends that they are the likeliest to return and vote for Trump in 2020, which could hurt the Democrats shot at the White House.
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonexaminer.com ...
who will be these Republicans who will defeat incumbent Democrats? Who will win their primary?
Can they win reelection in 2022 ( off year election) with new constituents due to reapportionment and redistricting and history against them?
NH not NM.
ICE is having a hard enough time removing illegal aliens with final deportation orders > 1% of the total.
Democrats have a high water mark of about 15 states plus DC for 2020... no matter who their nominee is.... IF they nominate a nutter, Democrats may not be able to get 10 states.
Barring some black swan event, Trump is going to get more votes for President than any republican in History.
Democrats are on track for a repeat of 1972.
Trump will win re-election with the largest EC victory since Reagan.
Prediction:
Trump takes EVER state he took in 16.
In states he lost in 16, he will win most if not all of the states he got 45% or more of the vote in 16. and he will battle for and likely win a few states where he got between 40 and 45% of the vote in 16.
Democrats will be pigeonholed to the coastal and NE deep blue states, and IL.
The only real question for 2020, is not will Trump win, or even will Trump win by a landslide.. he will.. the real question is HOW FAR DOWN BALLOT WILL HIS COAT TAILS GO....
My guess, is pretty long, I expect the GOP to retake the house in 2020 as well.
True. Maybe we can just spread a rumor ICE will be there - ready to pick up illegals if they attempt to vote.
“who will be these Republicans who will defeat incumbent Democrats? Who will win their primary? Can they win reelection in 2022 ( off year election) with new constituents due to reapportionment and redistricting and history against them?”
you might have posted to the wrong person, because i’m with you on this ... maybe you meant to post to Lurkinanloomin ...
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