For Ilhan Omar’s district, it is an urban-suburban seat centered on Minneapolis (MN-5). Although racially it is 67% White and just 17% Black (as of 2012), the urban Whites are ultra-leftists. This was the same district that sent Keith Ellison before Omar. President Trump only got 19% here in 2016, the GOP nominees got 22% in ‘16 and ‘18. The last Republican to win here was in 1960, and that was under a vastly different cultural and social climate.
Ayanna Pressley’s district (MA-7) is a mostly urban seat in Boston (excluding downtown) and surrounding areas to the north and south. It was plurality White (34%) as of 2012 (26% Black, 22% Hispanic), and until Pressley defeated the Dem incumbent, the ultra-leftist Capuano, only elected White males. Although the districts in MA have been altered and augmented over the years (it was the home to the gerrymander), it is basically the most historic Dem district in the state, and last elected a Republican in 1874 (effectively breaking the GOP majority hold of that era), although that member was unseated by the Democrat due to voter fraud, so it has been Dem-held without interruption for 144 years. It was once the premier Irish seat that sent the Fitzgerald & Kennedys and Tip O’Neill. The Republicans don’t really exist here anymore. Trump got 12% here.
Rashida Tlaib’s MI-13 is a Voting Rights Act seat, and was drawn as such beginning in 1964 (it was held by John Conyers for virtually its entire existence until last year). However, due to drastic population losses in this Detroit & suburbs seat, it now is only 56% Black and 33% White (although again, like most urban locales, the Whites are also Dem). Trump received 18% here, which unlikely the previous districts, was an improvement on the GOP performance of just 14% in 2014 (likely an increase in the White working class Dem vote, and meaning a majority of Whites in the seat voted GOP in 2016). He should increase his numbers here, but Tlaib is only at risk for losing in the Dem primary, where she only barely won over Detroit Council President Brenda Jones (Jones actually won the special election for Conyers’ 2018 vacancy, but lost the primary to Tlaib).
Lastly, you have AOC’s NY-14th district (part of Bronx & North-Central Queens). My family lived in this district as recently as 1975, but with different demographics and a different type of Congressman. It was just under 50% Hispanic and 18% White as of 2012. It had elected only White Dems for decades until Alexandria knocked off Joe Crowley. The last Republican to win here, albeit under different lines overall, was in 1946. It sent James J. Delaney from 1945-47; 1949-79, who once was one of the most Conservative Urban Democrats in DC. Unfortunately, the influx of moonbats with the 1974 Watergate elections scared him into moving leftwards, and he was succeeded by Geraldine Ferraro in 1978 (followed by Tom Manton and then Joe Crowley). This was the “Archie Bunker District” back in the ‘70s, but most of those White working class types have since died off or fled. The GOP doesn’t much exist here, though Trump got 20% here (also an improvement from Willard’s 18% in 2014), the highest % of these 4 now-moonbat districts.
Now, now... the Squad - and the democrats in general are just doing the communism that normal Americans won’t do.
Thanks for fantastic research, as usual. I have tweeted most of this, with kudos to you. This is stuff no one else except the innermost campaign people ever see.
SFG coming on strong.
Will make wildcard game.
Thanks fieldmarshaldj.