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From what I have seen so far this year, the US team is going to have a hard time repeating. The goaltending is weak and the back line is vulnerable. We will need to score more to offset our defensive weaknesses. And there is no doubt that there is greater parity than 2015.

Australia is a dark horse that could surprise along with favorites like France, Germany, England, and Japan.

Getting out of the group should be a given (looking at you German men). Then we need to peak up to The Final.

That’s my hope.

Absolutely right, though I think the U.S. back line is better than it has looked. Jill Ellis continued to shuffle players until very late in the prep cycle, and Kelley O'Hara's nagging injury issues were an issue. Moving Julie Ertz into midfield changes the whole chemistry of the defense. Now we'll see if it works consistently against the top teams. The big factor, however, is that Ellis is intent on pushing the defenders up into the attack. (That's why Ertz is now a holding midfielder; she clogs the middle while the outside backs attack.) I feel more comfortable with Tierna Davidson as opposed to Emily Sonnett on the backline; Sonnett is more offensive minded, and Ellis clearly likes that, but she gives up too much defensively. A gambling defense can pay off against lesser teams, but opponents like France and Australia have the speed to make you pay. Allie Krieger was a surprise addition to the squad, and it will be interesting to see how much playing time she gets. She certainly has the experience. The question is whether she is still fast enough at her age.

As to parity: the teams you mention are perfectly capable on any given day of just flat-out beating the U.S. France in particular has speed to burn. (People who haven't been paying attention until now will soon note that the African diaspora has now reached the top tiers of French sport. Just sayin' … but it's obvious out on the field who the dangerous French players are.) If the WWC were played World Series, NHL or NBA style with best of seven rounds, the U.S. would be a solid favorite, with France the likeliest to carry the series to seven games and perhaps win. That wouldn't even be much of an upset. In a single elimination format, however, the winner will have to win four straight games against peer-level opponents. That's tough in any sport. Of the top teams, the U.S. has the best chance of playing through, but even the best team will probably have to dodge a bullet or two along the way. If the bet is U.S. vs. the field, I'd bet on the field. As of this morning, since everyone (surprisingly) seems to be healthy, my crystal ball says the U.S. has an 18.473 percent chance of winning the whole thing, followed closely by France with its home-field advantage. The other top teams aren't far behind.

As an aside, expectations management is a problem for the U.S. team. They've been an elite team for so long that U.S. fans take it for granted. Fans tend to lose sight of the fact that U.S. success is artificially inflated by the fact that we play through CONCACAF. No offense to Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Panama, T&T, etc., who play as hard as they can, but Canada is the only worthy opponent in our region. The U.S. qualifies for the Olympics and World Cup almost by default. It's theoretically possible for the U.S. to fail to qualify -- in 2011, chronically underperforming Mexico scraped together a team and got its only win against the U.S., which had to play through the wildcard bracket to qualify -- but we essentially take qualification for granted. If we had to play through Europe or Asia, we would have a much stiffer test. The U.S. team would have to battle to qualify and would probably sit at home from time to time. The fans would have a much better appreciation of the level of competition at the top level of the sport.

The goaltending is average, not outstanding. We got used to having the best goalkeeper in the world. Hope Solo was a hot mess off the field, but we miss her now. She might have aged out anyhow by this point, but it sure ain't the same without her back there. I'm not really in a position to judge, but there is some talk that Aubrey Bledsoe of the Washington Spirit may be the best U.S. goalkeeper at this point. For some reason she's never been in the national team mix. Ellis has done a good job over the last four years bringing in new field players (and maybe overdone it a bit), but the pipeline seems to be shut down at goalkeeper. For years, Hope Solo owned the position and Ashlynn Harris was No. 2. It was awfully tough for anyone else to get a look. We may be paying for that now.