> It will be like the Troubles in N. Ireland. No one is going to tolerate any type of mass organized armies roaming around, causing chaos. <
I think you’ve got it right. There will be no civil war in the foreseeable future, for the reasons I mentioned in my post #13.
But the Troubles, yes. If a few flag-waving conservatives would wander into the wrong neighborhood, bad things would happen. If a few antifa types would wander into the wrong neighborhood, bad things would happen.
And maybe somebody from group A would decide to throw a bomb through the window of Group B’s headquarters.
But huge militias maneuvering against each other? That’s just a fantasy, for now at least. In a hundred years, who knows?
Try 2027 for a waypoint.
Not "huge militias". Dozens of heavily armed gangs squabbling over territory in major urban zones and some rural areas too.. The local Governments will be trying to play off the gangs against each other in order to maintain a semblance of control. Access to cash, manpower, and weapons will be decisive factors.
"Votes" can be manufactured as needed. Courts will rule in favor of who ever appears to be in charge.
See Chicago and Los Angles for worked examples today. Repeat in two dozen other cities and multiply the intensity by a factor of 20 or so.
Central authority will break down under economic stresses triggered by the pending insolvency of State and Municipal pension plans and Medicaid plans. This will increase exponentially by 2024 and the response will be Federal Government bailouts. The checks will be deposited every month; you may be quite certain. This of course will cause massive inflation. By 2027, things should really be cooking.
The Federal Government will be busy purging dissident individuals from civil service and any role in public life. Large corporations will be aggressively doing the same in the so-called private sectors. Think of "public-private partnerships" and what they really entail.
Large Government and large Corporations are symbiotic allies.
Governments will sponsor "Public Safety Auxiliary Forces" when they can no longer fund regular police departments. These will be local militia, and mostly with a Leftist and ethnic political orientation. They will be poorly-trained, but ultimately permitted and well-supplied with small arms.
Again, see the "Sharia Patrols" which operate in New York City with approval (or at least toleration) from the Police.
Lots of raw kindling available to start a fire when formerly middle-class people find themselves taxed out of their homes and impoverished by constantly rising prices.
Most of the kinetic activity will be localized. Others with more experience have said; "The greatest threats to your life and liberty are within five miles of where you live". That sounds right to me.
True. Most people just aren't motivated.
But the Troubles, yes. If a few flag-waving conservatives would wander into the wrong neighborhood, bad things would happen. If a few antifa types would wander into the wrong neighborhood, bad things would happen.
You're talking about very small groups that might be motivated to get violent. Most people are just "live and let live" types. The "wanderers" would have to be really looking for a fight.
There could be violence if something really divisive happens - another undecided election, a major supreme court decision, a complete collapse of the economy - but most people are too fat and happy. And that's good.
It takes a long time for the kind of troubles familiar from Ireland or the Balkans or the Caucasus or the Middle East to develop. Groups were living side by side, but divided and hostile to each other for a long time. You knew which group you belonged to and people told you your whole life long not to trust those in the other group. I could see outbreaks of racial violence in a few parts of the country, but red and blue Republicans and Democrats attacking each other is less likely.
Now an anecdote: I had to go to a family meeting this week. My brother and I stopped at McDonald's. The TV there was showing Fox News. I was a little surprised, and my liberal brother made some sarcastic comments quietly to himself. But most people just sat there eating their food. This was in a very liberal town outside a very liberal city in a very liberal state and nobody was jumping up and down screaming. You read stories about that on the Internet, but they don't reflect the reality that well.