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Nonviolent protests are twice as likely to succeed as armed conflicts
bbc.com ^ | 5/14/2019 | David Robson

Posted on 05/16/2019 8:05:59 AM PDT by rktman

click here to read article


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Seems to have worked for the glbtqxyzrp bunch.
1 posted on 05/16/2019 8:05:59 AM PDT by rktman
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To: rktman

This is a stupid article.


2 posted on 05/16/2019 8:08:10 AM PDT by mindburglar (Stupid is supposed to hurt. - Lurkers Granddad.)
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To: rktman

Why would we need to do something to destroy a government that is destroying itself?


3 posted on 05/16/2019 8:08:11 AM PDT by wastoute (Government cannot redistribute wealth. Government can only redistribute poverty.)
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To: rktman

....says the BBC.


4 posted on 05/16/2019 8:08:34 AM PDT by Jack Hammer
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To: rktman

This is why the anarchists claim they are justified in using violence then “threatened” by a differing opinion.


5 posted on 05/16/2019 8:08:39 AM PDT by BenLurkin (The above is not a statement of fact. It is either satire or opinion. Or both.)
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To: mindburglar

Hey, I didn’t force you to read it. LOL! Gotta keep up with the nutbags to protect yourself. Just sayin’.


6 posted on 05/16/2019 8:10:07 AM PDT by rktman ( #My2ndAmend! ----- Enlisted in the Navy in '67 to protect folks rights to strip my rights. WTH?)
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To: rktman

I wonder if the statistics accurately account for countries like China, Cuba and NK.


7 posted on 05/16/2019 8:14:34 AM PDT by rightwingcrazy (;-)
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To: mindburglar

Should have tried that against Hitler.
Then this article would be in German.


8 posted on 05/16/2019 8:18:45 AM PDT by Buckeye McFrog
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To: rktman

Go on the offensive. People live in fear of discussing politics with me. I actually don’t enjoy it.

Tell them you don’t like talking politics. They know.

They say things like Trump and you say “yeah. That’s right”.


9 posted on 05/16/2019 8:19:17 AM PDT by mindburglar (Stupid is supposed to hurt. - Lurkers Granddad.)
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To: Buckeye McFrog

Random


10 posted on 05/16/2019 8:20:08 AM PDT by mindburglar (Stupid is supposed to hurt. - Lurkers Granddad.)
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To: rktman
Only if the Media are on the protesters' side.
Otherwise we won't even hear about them.

11 posted on 05/16/2019 8:20:37 AM PDT by BitWielder1 (I'd rather have Unequal Wealth than Equal Poverty.)
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To: rktman

Anyway man. Nice having a short conversation. Always a pleasure seeing your posts and responding.

We’re all in this together.


12 posted on 05/16/2019 8:24:36 AM PDT by mindburglar (Stupid is supposed to hurt. - Lurkers Granddad.)
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To: rightwingcrazy

Guess someone could poll the Uhgurs(islamists)[?] or whatever they’re called. Kind of a captive crowd in certain areas of China.


13 posted on 05/16/2019 8:25:05 AM PDT by rktman ( #My2ndAmend! ----- Enlisted in the Navy in '67 to protect folks rights to strip my rights. WTH?)
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To: Buckeye McFrog

“Should have tried that against Hitler.
Then this article would be in German.”

Probably not. In reality, Hitler was able to do what he did because the German people were on board with his message. There were a few turning points when he could likely have been stopped by several million in the streets refusing to play ball. But Germans aren’t wired that way.

In a large enough movement, the soldiers quickly see where the power is and head there. It’s happened many times


14 posted on 05/16/2019 8:25:29 AM PDT by DesertRhino (Dog is man's best friend, and moslems hate dogs. Add that up. ....)
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To: mindburglar

I just wait for them to start listing the actual things that they can defend when calling him racist or homophobic or a misogynist. Mostly crickets. Or, “You know what I mean.”.


15 posted on 05/16/2019 8:28:05 AM PDT by rktman ( #My2ndAmend! ----- Enlisted in the Navy in '67 to protect folks rights to strip my rights. WTH?)
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To: BitWielder1
Only if the Media are on the protesters' side.

Only if the MILITARY is on the protesters' side.

Marcos only stepped down in the Philippines because General Fidel Ramos led a defection of senior military leaders to support Corazon Aquino.

16 posted on 05/16/2019 8:28:38 AM PDT by Alberta's Child ("Out on the road today I saw a Deadhead sticker on a Cadillac.")
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To: rktman

My take on passive resistance is that it plays on the sense of decency of the government in charge. But what if it has none?


17 posted on 05/16/2019 8:29:20 AM PDT by rightwingcrazy (;-)
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To: DesertRhino
In a large enough movement, the soldiers quickly see where the power is and head there. It’s happened many times.

There are many situations where the military changes sides, and that leads to success for the peaceful insurgents. There are of course many examples where the reverse happens.

The nature of the research doesn't say anything about what the best strategy will be in any particular situation, making it typical of the weak research approaches the left likes.

The research misses all the situations where a repressive government, or a repressive insurgency, silenced the non-violent opposition. Does anybody think marching against Pol Pot, or Mao with flowers in your hand didn't just get you killed? How did the non-violent protests against ISIS work out?

18 posted on 05/16/2019 8:33:35 AM PDT by freeandfreezing
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To: rktman
The real underlying finding of the research is that protests with more than 3.5% of the public participating succeed in changing the government about half of the time.

In many cases that just means that the government has little support, and the transition is inevitable anyway. In cases where real tyrannical governments are in control even large portions of the public protesting may not make a difference.

Interestingly, the research suggests that the reason for non-violent protests succeeding more than violent attempts at changing the government is that the non-violent protests attract more participants, and therefore can reach the 3.5% threshold more easily.

The article also notes that the lack of access to weapons hinders the ability of violence based groups to succeed. That is probably at the root of the left's desire to disarm the population, since based on the researcher's findings a group which combined armed and non-violent protest that was supported by a few percent of the public would be able to change most governments.

19 posted on 05/16/2019 8:45:02 AM PDT by freeandfreezing
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To: rktman
Article suffers from the basic "Post hoc, ergo propter hoc" Fallacy.

Specifically: Nonviolent protests were perhaps launched only when it was ALREADY obvious to the protesters that they would be successful (e.g., when the regime against they were protesting was already tottering).

Armed conflicts, in contrast, are perhaps initiated even though no such clarity or certainty exists (and their failure-rate might be correspondingly high).

A basic flaw in reasoning.

I also wouldn't be surprised if apples were being compared with oranges here: Conflicts in which one side attempts to employ peaceful protests (or views non-violence as a feasible alternative) are probably fundamentally different than conflicts in which at least one side views violence as the "best" option (or is totally exaspirated).

Regards,

20 posted on 05/16/2019 11:20:35 AM PDT by alexander_busek (Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.)
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