Free Republic
Browse · Search
General/Chat
Topics · Post Article

To: dangus

Managers don’t want singles. Statistical analysis has shown that swinging for the fences gets you more runs than trying to hit singles.

You could fix this by raising the walls, to make it harder to hit balls out of the park, thus changing the statistical advantage. Hitters would still get hits, sometimes doubles, by hitting off the wall, but doubles off the wall are not as valuable as home runs.


18 posted on 05/15/2019 1:01:12 PM PDT by CharlesWayneCT
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies ]


To: CharlesWayneCT
You can see why home runs are statistically preferred to singles when you look at the numbers and do some simple math.

As of today, the three highest on-base percentages in the NL are .486 (Bellinger, LAD), .446 (Yelich, MIL), and .439 (McNeil, NYM).

Put all three of those on the same team and put them at the top of the lineup, and you'll find:

1. All other factors aside, the odds of the two batters reaching base safely in the same inning is only 21%.

2. The odds of ALL THREE of them reaching base consecutively is only 9.5%.

So even with the top three players in the National League in terms of on-base percentage, they are statistically likely to get on base consecutively fewer than once every two games.

Put three average players up in a row, and you'll probably find that it's maybe once every 4-5 games.

This is why teams rarely ever try to "manufacture" runs anymore.

43 posted on 05/15/2019 2:40:18 PM PDT by Alberta's Child ("Out on the road today I saw a Deadhead sticker on a Cadillac.")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 18 | View Replies ]

Free Republic
Browse · Search
General/Chat
Topics · Post Article


FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson