Posted on 12/24/2018 10:00:03 AM PST by blam
You could hear and feel the collective gasp from Alabama football fans across the country when Tua hobbled off the field in the SEC Championship. Going into the Orange Bowl, the game plan of a non-Tua led offense will not necessarily change.
There are really only two scenarios in which Tua doesn’t see the field: he is ruled out from the start or gets hurt during the game. As shown from the SEC Championship game, the growth and development of Jalen Hurts were put on full display and ultimately led to the comeback to keep the undefeated season alive. For Alabama football to advance to the National Championship without Tagovailoa it will take two keys: Running to victory and a Defensive stand.
Alabama Football Running To Victory
If Tua Tagovailoa cannot play during the Orange Bowl due to his injured ankle then the wheels will be in motion to test Oklahoma’s ability to not only stop Alabama’s rushing attack. Plus, OU also stopping Jalen Hurts improved ability to throw the football.
I believe Alabama would open the offense up with a lot of high percentage throws for Jalen to develop into a rhythm. Passes such as screens and hot routes to the backs in the flats.
The goal being, not only rhythm for Jalen but also to test the edges of the Oklahoma defense.
Oklahoma’s defense has been consistently burned not only in the secondary but also against the run. The Sooner defense currently ranks 53rd in the country surrendering an average of 156.7 yards per game. Which is deceiving in the rankings because the passing defense ranks 128th in the country allowing 291.4 yards per game.
Combining these numbers leads to Oklahoma’s total defense being ranked 108th in the country allowing 6.03 yards a play and 448.1 yards a game to its opponents.
Even with these poor numbers, the Sooners defense has been saved by its offense which ranks 1st in the Nation in total offense.
So it is imperative for a Jalen Hurts offense to control the clock. In order to limit the offense production of which the Sooners are capable. Doing that requires the Tide to succeed in running the football.
Alabama Football Defensive Stand
The offensive production the Sooners have been able to produce this season is staggering. To believe that Alabama will shut out the Sooners is nearly unfathomable.
Which leads to a question. Without Tagovailoa, how many points can Alabama football surrender and still secure victory?
I believe that Alabama can surrender no more than 30 points without Tagovailoa under center.
Do I believe that Jalen Hurts is capable of scoring 50 points? Yes.
However, I don’t know if Jalen Hurts is capable of producing the quick strikes that Tagovailoa has shown over the course of the season.
I think Jalen is more than capable of scoring on each and every possession against the struggling Sooners defense. But it will be time-consuming drives of greater than 4-5 minutes.
I think a reasonable final score for victory under Hurts would be something like 35-28.
It will take a tremendous effort from the Alabama defense to shut down Kyler Murray regardless of who is under center for Alabama.
However, I believe more pressure falls upon the defense’s shoulders if Tagovailoa is unable to play during the game.
Conclusion
Jalen Hurts showed in the SEC Championship game that he has greatly improved as a passer. He led two touchdown drives against a Georgia defense that is far superior to Oklahoma’s defense.
However, in the Orange Bowl, each score can be matched by the high flying Sooners offense.
If Tua is injured, it will take a consistent rushing effort from the Tide’s offense combined with a tremendous effort from the Tide’s defense to advance to the National Championship.
Talk all you want, the SEC has 3 good teams, the rest are plain old crap.
Bama needs to make a late season trade for Justin Fields. Maybe a couple of offensive linesmen?
Answer: they will play with a different qb. I know I’m going out on a limb but that is about all one can predict with any certainty.
Oh, good grief.
I just want Clemson to crush Notre Dame so bad that Notre Dame will never be seriously considered for the FBS playoffs again.
"Three members of the Alabama football team, including starting left guard Deonte Brown, will not be playing in the Orange Bowl according to a source. The three players didn’t make the trip to Florida because of a violation of team rules. Brown is believed to be the only starter impacted. "
Golden Flake cheese puffs ... Wonderful!
If Tua gets injured in the Hula/Orange bowl, I think the only solution is to DANCE.
Nice D.
Alabama fans suck
Not as badly as Big 12 defence (By the way, my top team by allegiance is OSU—Oregon State U—but by this time of year I root elsewhere).
Never gave a crap about the Tide, but it was funny embarrassing them a few years ago. Nothing like an uncalled spear. I suspect a few scandals in the near future.
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