Posted on 11/30/2018 2:42:21 PM PST by blam
Tua Tagovailoa
What was it, eleven months ago when Alabama and Georgia met in the national championship game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta?
Alabama was a 4-point favorite, had an offense that was pedestrian with Jalen Hurts at quarterback and a defense finally healthy and enough firepower to contain Georgia's offense that seemed to have all the pieces for an upset. The first half, Georgia dominated. The second, you know what happened.
When No. 1 Alabama and No. 4 Georgia meet again Saturday in the SEC Championship Game, the Crimson Tide will go in a 13-point favorite.
It might be a good idea for Georgia to adjust the settings. This isn't last year's Crimson Tide.
Georgia? So much of the 2018 Bulldogs look a lot like the 2017 Bulldogs. They have Jake Fromm back at quarterback, a year older and more efficient, and the same cast of playmakers at receiver with Mecole Hardman, Riley Ridley and Terry Godwin. Add Jeremiah Holloman and Tyler Simmons, who have had their moments, to the depth.
Nick Chubb and Sony Michel are no longer in the backfield, but D'Andre Swift and Elijah Holyfield swap out nicely with their versatility, speed and power.
Georgia's defense is still fast, but up front it's not the be all end all unit it was last season. It doesn't have a defensive line like Mississippi State's or Auburn's, or LSU's NFL talent in the secondary.
It does have a picture of what could happen if the last 30 minutes of last year's game plays out over 60 minutes of this year's game.
Facing Tua Tagovailoa in the second half of the national title game, the sophomore quarterback came in for Hurts, had a three-touchdown performance and wiped out a 13-0 first-half Georgia lead. The Bulldogs didn't game plan for Tagovailoa last January but this weekend they say they know what to expect. They certainly know what he can do.
In 12 games, Tagovailoa has completed 70.3 percent of his passes for 3,189 yards, 36 touchdowns, two interceptions, and five rushing touchdowns. He leads an offense that averages a staggering 49 points per game. If he doesn't have the best group of receivers in the country with Jerry Jeudy, Henry Ruggs, Irv Smith, Jaylen Waddle, and DeVonta Smith, who does? Oklahoma? Clemson? Ohio State? Those are guesses, not the answer.
Unlike last year's methodical offense, this year's Tide is a touchdown waiting to happen. It leads the nation in passing plays of 20-plus yards with 70, in large part because of Tagovailoa's deep ball accuracy and elite protection from his line. The Bulldogs, it should be noted, are tied for second in the nation in fewest passing plays allowed over 20 yards, giving up 19.
Georgia's pass rush has to disrupt Tagovailoa to guarantee the Dawgs a playoff invitation, but that could be a problem. Last season Georgia got to the quarterback on 34 occasions. It has 20 sacks entering Saturday, 101st in the nation.
Last year the sports books saw a close game and it was, Alabama 26-23 in overtime.
This year the Tide opened a 10-point favorite and the line has jumped to 13.
This is the best offense Nick Saban has had in a quarter century as head coach.
It doesn't always play the readiest, so a Citadel or Auburn first half could turn up on the stat sheet. Georgia isn't a team you'd want to take a couple quarters off.
This week's picks:
SEC Championship Georgia (11-1) vs. Alabama (12-0)
The No. 4 Bulldogs are in the College Football Playoff if they defeat No. 1 Alabama. The Tide? It likely can afford to lose if push comes to shove. If that happened, the CFP Committee would look at its one-loss pool of Alabama, Oklahoma and Ohio State (if OU and OSU win as expected this weekend) and, after factoring in all the things it factors in, will determine OU's loss was to a 9-4 Texas team and the Buckeyes' loss was by 29 points, a really embarrassing 29-point loss, to a 6-6 Purdue team.
Routing Michigan 62-39 last week and hanging another blowout performance on Northwestern in the Big Ten title game would be huge for OSU, but Alabama owns the best Power 5 record (4-0) in the latest playoff poll. But that's if the Tide loses.
If Georgia loses, a two-loss SEC team is going to feel the wrath of SEC fatigue from the committee after LSU, which dismantled the Bulldogs last month and has a killer resume, lost for the third time last week at Texas A&M. With offense a big part of Alabama's and Georgia's DNA, both averaging over 40 points a game, a shootout seems logical. Maybe a skinny shootout.
Alabama 36, Georgia 30
Nah. Alabama will be in either way.
Do you realize how many spirits would be lifted if Alabama wasn't in the championship playoffs?
Georgia can still make a strong case as one of the top four teams in the country even if they lose to Alabama -- if they can keep the game close.
I predict an epic blowout with Alabama winning by 41 points.
I have a feeling that Georgia will pull off the upset. Unfortunately, my hunches only work when I keep them to myself.
I believe Georgia will win. Like Evander Holyfield said, if you don’t believe it, it’s not going to happen. I know the Dawgs believe they will win.
Look at the #1 through #4 teams right now:
Alabama
Clemson
Notre Dame
Georgia
If there's a team outside these top four that really scares Alabama (#5 Oklahoma or #6 Ohio State, for example), Alabama can keep them out of the playoffs by deliberately losing a close game to Georgia.
Just one more thing not to like about a college football playoff system.
Although I have great difficulty rooting for Alabama either
You must be a Tech fan..
Many years ago, my FRiend
Graduated in ‘77 BS Nuclear Engineering
Band Geek
It's all in good fun
Not a GT fan but love their fight song.
I wouldn’t think GA would stand a chance, but then I witnessed the Cowboys beating the Saints last night.
1. They didn't win their conference championship.
2. Even worse, they didn't even play in the SEC championship game ... because they didn't even win their own division within the SEC.
If Alabama's only loss is to Georgia in the SEC championship game, they have a much stronger case for a playoff spot than any other one-loss team in the NCAA.
This is why conference championship games make no sense when the NCAA has a playoff for the national championship -- unless the conference championship games are the first round of the playoffs and there are no at-large playoff invitations at all.
Georgia will lose by 38 points.
Dawgs are headed to the Sugar Bowl. I agree, however, that Bama is in absent an inconceivable blowout by the Dawgs.
The interesting debate is OU or OSU for the 4th spot.
Please be respectful and use the real name.
“North Avenue Trade School”
I’m no Georgia fan (Gator thru and thru) but I do not believe a team of Georgia’s talent is going to lose by double digits (38!) to a team they will be totally up for. I will be surprised if they outright win, but they will be in the game for most of the time.
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