Then Lincoln becomes the front-runner for the nomination and presidency.
Unless he falters or stumbles under all the public scrutiny.
with Douglas out of the picture, the remaining Democratic possibilities would be more favorable to the Deep South.
So unless the extremists really wanted to break the party in half, the Democrats would probably be united.
The electoral mathematics could still favor Lincoln over the Democrat, though.
Likely, and some have argued that here.
But elections are as much about contagious enthusiasm as anything else, and Democrats in 1860 had none, Republicans plenty.
Had Democrats in 1860 remained united behind, say, a Southern senator, that may have gone a long way to improving their voters' enthusiasm.
28 electoral votes flipped would put the 1860 election into the House of Representatives, and there were nearly 100 electoral votes won by Lincoln with single digit margins.