Posted on 10/20/2018 4:46:11 AM PDT by JLAGRAYFOX
The Florida Division of Elections has just released yesterday's, 10/19/2018 Mail-In voting activity, statewide. Florida early voting begins next week.
Republicans - 386,702 votes cast & recorded. Democrats - 335,702 votes cast & recorded. Others - 4,654 votes cast & recorded. No Party Affiliation (Independent) - 151,325 votes cast & recorded.
The GOP continues to pull away and increase its lead over Democrats by a leading margin of 51,000 votes, statewide. A final tally for yesterday's voting activity should be posted about 10:00 AM (EST) time this morning.
And let’s remember, Saint Lucie county always reports late, and you know what that means.
Excellent work Methos8! I see the range now at the end of VBM voting has narrowed according to your calculations.
Up to 3.225 million VBM requests.
Also McDonald (early vote guru lib professor) calling turnout historic/unprecedented like 1966 or 1970.
Counties where VBM turnout already exceeds 60% of turnout in 2014, which is pretty significant given we’ve got two more weeks of counting to go.
60-70% - Lee, Manatee, Marion, Osceola, Pasco, Sarasota, Volusia
70%+ - Collier, Hernando, Indian River, St. Johns, Sumter
All solid red except Osceola (outskirts of Orlando suburbs) and Sarasota which votes purple in VBM. Blue county turnout:
Alachua 41%
Broward 41%
Leon 25% (caveat - hurricane)
Miami-Dade 39%
Orange 41%
Palm Beach 32%
Note Republicans currently have a 1k lead in Miami-Dade, which is not unprecedented (see 2014) but not a great sign for the Dems either.
I believe the count should not be public until election day. Knowing the margin well ahead of time is just telegraphing the amount of fraud that needs to occur. Watch Broward Co. be the last to finish again...
That said, I know straight white males that vote D. It’s astonishing. They vote for a party that hates them. They’re literal cucks that think if the mob came for them they’ll be able to cry “but I’m one of you!” and think it’ll save them. Morons.
Are you perpetually constipated?
I don’t ever see a post of yours that you don’t criticize someone, complain about a poster, or, in any way, add positively to the general discussion.
Maybe try some original research? (Or do you leave that to the rest of us then complain when we post it?)
This is normal. You think there aren’t indies?
But, just for you, I ran the #s.
If Rs are getting 51%, their total lead right now is 54,000.
I’ve been saying this since mid-summer. I said back then that Steve Chabot, for example, was NEVER going to lose his seat.
This is a natural ebb and flow that shows the characteristics of each party: Ds more “outraged” and perpetually ginned up, giving them a lead in special elections. But Rs have lives, church, jobs, and DO turn out in real election seasons.
I never once doubted that Rs would coalesce bigly in October, cuz that’s their nature.
Do you mean Rs had 58k more absentees returned? I think that’s right.
So far, news articles saying Hamilton Co., IN, Knox Co., TN, and the Cincy area (Chabot) are voting “at record levels.”
Not the right way to look at this. Like the poor, the “indies” are with us always.
If Rs are “just” getting 51% (I think a lot more), in FL they are already at 54,000 advantage over the Ds, or 466,000 votes.
Absolutely wrong.
I can prove this with data from Montgomery Co, OH, where 2 years ago we devised an intricate history search of EVERY “indie” household in the county. We then assigned them D or R status based on their history.
Guess what? We were dead on. Indies were breaking over 51% of Rs.
GOP counties are overperforming. DEM underperforming. Slightly annoyed by Sarasota - much happier about Miami-Dade.
Early voting with a 54K advantage is awesome for our team.
However, it does tell the opposition (they run the elections in Tampa, Dade, Broward, JX & PB) exactly how many votes they need to manufacture in order to fraudulently win on actual Election Day.
And what about DeSantis? Where is his campaign?
Yes, that is what I meant. 58k ballot advantage just from mail in. Early in person D’s +155k. Then R’s dominated election day vote.
Yeah, what’s up with Sarasota? Rs have a decided registration advantage in that county and they showed up in ‘16. But in this years primary as well as mail-in so far, they are lagging and behind pace. Sarasota county looks like a good spot for a Trump/Scott/DeSantis rally.
Will post about TN later comparing REP county turnout with the DEM county turnout.
Already 345,000 early voters after only 3 days of early voting!
Turnout in 2014 was about 1.3 million. Turnout in 2016 was 2.4 million. What will this year’s turnout be?
Yeah I’m sure the GOP ground game is on that too. It’s not like we had a huge edge in 2016 there with VBM (it was small) but so far we’re tied in terms of voters turning in their ballots.
I know Sarasotans prefer early voting compared to VBM so we should see our registration edge manifest in the early voting numbers starting next week.
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