The problem is that if Manchin feels he may lose, then he will vote with his party on kavenaugh as a final FU. Keep will only vote for kav if he feels it will help him win.
Good thing he’ll have to make that decision/vote BEFORE the midterms :-)
Manchin read th tea leaves a while ago.. he probably is the most likely of the red state Dems to survive... but end of the day he’ll likely lose..
Especially if he goes no on Kavanaugh