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Raising the Ceiling, but Not the Floor, on Potential Democratic House Gains
Center for politics ^ | April 26, 2018

Posted on 04/26/2018 8:50:36 AM PDT by SMGFan

— The number of potentially vulnerable Republican seats is growing, and we’re adding an extra 10 GOP-held seats to the Likely Republican column this week.

(Excerpt) Read more at centerforpolitics.org ...


TOPICS: Reference; Society
KEYWORDS: 2018; 2018midterms; midtermelections
But no Democrats are adjusted?

I had heard Grimm of Staten Island threatened Donovan re election

1 posted on 04/26/2018 8:50:36 AM PDT by SMGFan
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To: SMGFan

Yup. Doomsday for the republicrats for sure. Just like in AZ Tuesday. Yawn. Now a word from our sponsors.


2 posted on 04/26/2018 8:53:32 AM PDT by rktman (Enlisted in the Navy in '67 to protect folks rights to strip my rights. WTH?)
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To: SMGFan

Staten Island politics is corrupt and chaotic.

S.I./S Brooklyn needs a stable conservative representative with no baggage.


3 posted on 04/26/2018 8:58:42 AM PDT by GuavaCheesePuff
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To: SMGFan

Yup Democrats will run and win BIG by promising to repeal the Second Amendment, repeal Trump’s tax cuts, impeach Trump, and wringing reparation money out of White Christians to buy Black votes which BTW are slipping away, and all of this with no money. Is that about right? Ha ha ha go away morons.


4 posted on 04/26/2018 9:00:54 AM PDT by jmaroneps37 (Conservatism is truth. Liberalism is lies.)
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To: rktman

I wouldn’t be so quick. If Trump cant get Sessions to unwrap Watergate 2.0 in the next few months i would not be surprised to see the House go to D+5. At least and D+15 might not be out of the question. Also, again, lacking Watergate 2.0 i would not be surprised to see the Senate go to D+1. Why the GOP cant get this is beyond me.


5 posted on 04/26/2018 9:11:32 AM PDT by wastoute (Government cannot redistribute wealth. Government can only redistribute poverty.)
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To: rktman

The concern is that elections since last year had the Republican get a smaller margin than Trump had. See the losses as well as wins.


6 posted on 04/26/2018 9:18:34 AM PDT by SMGFan (Sarah Michelle Gellar is on twitter @SarahMGellar)
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To: jmaroneps37

Seems like the demrats running for Gov in NV have all jumped on the ‘KILL THE NRA’/ass-salt weapons/bump stocks/silencers(?) band wagon already.


7 posted on 04/26/2018 9:29:40 AM PDT by rktman (Enlisted in the Navy in '67 to protect folks rights to strip my rights. WTH?)
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To: wastoute
Why the GOP cant get this is beyond me.

On, they get it just fine. That is the plan, they want to remove Trump while keeping their hands clean, at least in appearances. If they lose the house or the senate, I think the gop is dead.
8 posted on 04/26/2018 9:38:07 AM PDT by JoSixChip (He is Batman!)
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To: jmaroneps37
Yup Democrats will run and win BIG by promising to repeal the Second Amendment, repeal Trump’s tax cuts, impeach Trump, and wringing reparation money out of White Christians to buy Black votes which BTW are slipping away, and all of this with no money. Is that about right?

It's a mid-term election. They'll win by running against Trump and hoping that their base turns out better for them than Trump's base will for their opposing Republican.

9 posted on 04/26/2018 9:53:50 AM PDT by DoodleDawg
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To: rktman

It’s obvious you did not read the article/report. Sabato gave the democrats a 50/50 chance of retaking the House - unchanged. Read it - you may learn something.


10 posted on 04/26/2018 10:26:57 AM PDT by Dave W
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To: SMGFan

On April 20, 2014 the dems were ahead of the GOP by 41.8% to 39.1%.

The GOP won by 5.6% in November of that year.


11 posted on 04/26/2018 10:49:30 AM PDT by july4thfreedomfoundation (Washington is NOT a swamp.....It's a cesspool!)
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To: SMGFan

The GOP will lose the house this fall, unless they seriously change their direction and messaging.

About the only thing that can save them, at this point, will be the D’s openly running on impeachment, if they do that, expect the GOP to win 20+ seats.


12 posted on 04/26/2018 10:52:37 AM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: Dave W

The GOP is losing the house this fall, short of seismic shift in their actions and messaging.

The GOP thinks running the same tired messaging and rovesque campaigns in the age of Trump is a winning formula, and its not.

A lot of purple and pink districts will go blue this fall, it won’t be a 2010 or 1994 like massacre, but they will lose the house.

And the sad thing is, it would be easily preventable, but the GOP ecosphere has their heads so far up their own butts they are marching to solid defeat.


13 posted on 04/26/2018 10:55:04 AM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: HamiltonJay

Just out of curiosity, do you think certain senators in the Senate are more to blame than folks in the House?


14 posted on 04/26/2018 10:57:22 AM PDT by hawkaw
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To: hawkaw

The Senate has been the biggest reason the GOP hasn’t accomplished its stated goals... IE Repeal Obamacare etc...

However, it doesn’t matter to the voter.

The GOP will probably pick up 6 or more in the Senate IMHO... but they will lose a lot of pink and purple house districts. The reason? A motivated turnout can swamp a smaller district, but its far harder to swamp a state level race. There are very few purple or pink states.... and the map heavily favors the R’s in the Senate. However every state, even the deepest red ones have Purple and pink districts.

Its a simple equation.... To the left, the midterms are a referendum on TRUMP and they will show up en masse and vote.

For everyone else its a referendum on the GOP or their local congressman...

Add to this, the fact the GOP still keeps running ROVESQUE campaign messaging..... messaging that didn’t get the MAGA non traditional R voter to show up for the last 20 years,.... and won’t get them to show up now. The GOP isn’t even TRYING to reach out and talk to these voters, nothing in their actions or words has given those folks a single reason to care or show up for the midterms...>

The GOP just keeps throwing out Red Meat messaging for its reliable base, and that’s it... and that isn’t going to be enough in purple and pink districts... they won’t all flip, but they will lose enough to lose the house.

Look at the AZ election for example, the D nearly got Presidential level turnout, while the R only got close to midterm levels of turnout! That’s a recipe for DISASTER. The only reason the AZ district didn’t flip was because it was so red, that just getting the party faithful to show up was enough to beat back the motivated D... but that’s NOT going to be enough in a lot of districts, particularly outside of the south and flyover states... In the Upper Midwest for example, the GOP will likely lose 10+ seats there alone... When you move into the pinker and purple districts of deep blue states, the Dems will handily get more than enough seats to take the house.

The GOP honestly is INCOMPETENT!

Yes, in the deep red states you don’t need the non traditional R voter to beat even a motivated D base... outside of those areas however you will indeed need them... and the GOP’s actions and messaging has not given these people a single reason to care ...they haven’t even tried to speak to them, let alone give them a reason to show up.

The GOP needs to wake up fast, or lose the house.

About the only thing that can save them short of that, would be if the D’s openly ran on Impeachment for the fall....

Right now, the dynamic is referendum on Trump for the left, and referendum on GOP or local Congressman for everyone else...

If the Dems openly run on impeachment, then the race becomes a referendum on Trump for EVERYONE and if that happens the GOP picks up 20+ seats in spite of their own incompetence.


15 posted on 04/26/2018 11:10:05 AM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: Dave W

Larry sabato? Sometimes he’s right, sometimes he’s wrong.


16 posted on 04/26/2018 11:19:25 AM PDT by rktman (Enlisted in the Navy in '67 to protect folks rights to strip my rights. WTH?)
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To: SMGFan

Let’s see what President Hillary says about this poll.


17 posted on 04/26/2018 11:36:17 AM PDT by Midwesterner53
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To: HamiltonJay

Thanks for taking the time to provide your opinion. It was a great read and I agree with you.


18 posted on 04/26/2018 11:51:16 AM PDT by hawkaw
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To: SMGFan

Sabato is a Virginia Democrat who gets the benefit of running his biased political institute via a taxpayer supported academic institution. To me he is all B.S. and his institution should be kicked out of the taxpayer supported college that hosts it.


19 posted on 04/26/2018 2:08:48 PM PDT by Wuli
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