Big Republican Advantages Are Eroding in the Race for House Control

MSN/ New York Times ^ | February 12, 2018

[SMGFan]

The Democratic advantage on the generic congressional ballot has slipped over the last few weeks. But Republicans have gradually lost advantages of their own. Slowly but surely, the considerable structural advantages — like incumbency, geography and gerrymandering — that give the Republicans a chance to survive a so-called wave election are fading, giving Democrats a clearer path to a House majority in November.

The Republicans still retain formidable advantages, enough to win the House while losing the popular vote by a wide margin. But their edge has shrunk considerably over the last few months, and even more over the last few years.

(And it concludes )

Even so, Democrats still seem poised to have viable if imperfect candidates in a large number of battleground districts. Upshot estimates indicate that Democrats would need to win the popular vote by 7.4 points — albeit with a healthy margin of error of plus or minus more than four points — to take the House. Today, most estimates put the generic congressional ballot very near that number. So far from the election, the fight for control remains a tossup.

[dynoman]

Think. Unemployment is at a 45 year low. When the economy takes off from tax cuts who will work the jobs? Republicans should pass the Trumpcs immigration reform plan then tell that 1.8 million remember who actually did something for you when you vote. They will get more than one or two percent.