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Sunday, Feb 4, 2018 (Mountain Time) - Offense vs. Defense Matchups and Analysis

#1 Philadelphia at #1 New England 4:30 pm NBC, U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, Minnesota

Philly and N.E. are tied as the two best teams in the NFL based on net scoring strength. You don’t often get the two best teams statistically in the Super bowl and I don’t recall ever seeing the two Super Bowl teams tied for #1 ranking. That adds up to what should be an exciting, well-played game. Both teams basically tie in offense vs. defense scoring. The one area that is not close is N.E.’s defense giving up a lot of yards which gives Philly a big advantage over N.E. in overall yardage averages. That could be the deciding factor.

When Philly has the ball

Overall rank scoring rank ydg rank
#1 Philly Offense #3: 14 Pass 3 Run
#1 N.E Defense #5: 25 Pass 30 Run

Philly’s #3 scoring offense should be able to move the ball and score against N.E.’s #5 scoring defense which gives up a lot of yards – #25 against the pass and #30 against the run. Philly’s offense scored an average of 27 points per game and scored 38 points against the Vikes’ #1 defense, so they are capable of scoring a lot against N.E. Philly’s #3 run offense should be used more than their #14 pass offense. However, this is the Super Bowl, and teams tend to feel the need to pass even if their better strategy is to run. This will be especially true if Philly falls behind.

When N.E. has the ball

Overall rank scoring rank ydg rank
#1 N.E. Offense #2: 3 Pass 11 Run
#1 Philly Defense #4: 3 Pass 6 Run

This should be the best part of the game – Brady’s #2 scoring offense and #3 passing offense versus Philly’s #4 scoring defense and #3 pass defense. Brady’s aerial array will be challenged by Philly’s tough pass defense, even if Gronkowski is healthy. N.E. scores an average of 27 points per game and scored 24 points against the Jags #1 pass defense, so it’s possible they may score over 30 points against Philly. But in doing so, N.E. may allow turnovers and interceptions to Philly’s tough defense favoring more Philly scoring. I doubt N.E.’s #11 running game will be much of a factor against Philly’s #6 run defense.

Summary
The weakest link in this chain is N.E.’s defense and the strongest link is N.E.’s offense under Captain America, QB Tom Brady. But a chain is only as strong as its weakest link. Philly’s offense should score more points than Philly’s defense will allow. Look for a well-played, hard-fought, exciting & close game. Winner: Eagles.