[RayChuang88]

The problem with these things is even knowing all the stuff they know and all the supercomputers there are just too many other variables to account for.

Correct. They have to consider things like the "drag" from the solar wind just for starters.

[Red Badger]

The expansion of the Earth’s atmosphere on day side vs the night side, the angle of space station as it tumbles and the point of break-up, just for starters.

They’ll know where it’s gonna hit about ten minutes before it hits...............