Posted on 10/12/2017 6:23:59 AM PDT by ConservativeStatement
Forget Fermat’s last theorem. The most vexing challenge in mathematics just might be the Monty Hall problem. Monty Hall — born Monte Halparin — presented nearly 5,000 episodes of Let’s Make a Deal, the US game show that inspired the puzzle. It is an onion of a conundrum; layer after layer, and guaranteed to make you cry. The puzzle is this: a contestant faces three doors. Behind one of them is a big prize such as a Cadillac. Each of the other two doors conceals a booby prize such as a goat.
(Excerpt) Read more at ft.com ...
I just googled the title and the google link gets you past the paywall.
Subscription only for me, too.
As with the Monty Hall problem, when somebody explained the reasoning involved to me I sort of understood it, but when I tried to think it through on my own, I couldn't.
Stick or switch "Do you want what's behind the curtain?" may also be relevant to the Weinstein case.
An actress has a meeting scheduled with Harvey in a hotel lounge or restaurant.
He says, "I'm really busy, you'll have to come up to my hotel room."
What does she do?
Some would say she should assume he'll attack her and decline.
I suspect some of the actresses were assuming or gambling that he wouldn't or that they could handle any advances he made.
Maybe there's no mathematical solution, but probabilities and risks are involved.
I've always wondered about the Wheel of Fortune show.
Isn't it interesting how the wheel spins by itself at the end of the show? Obviously motorized. But who is to say they don't flip a momentary switch off stage that activates the motor beneath for only a split second to speed up or slow down the wheel after a contestant has spun it?
Monty’s knowledge has nothing to do with it. And he did offer every week. It’s just one of those really weird math puzzles, because there’s a 2/3 chance you’re wrong on the first guess switching improves your odds. It’s deep math I can almost understand but not explain.
The guy says he has a 66.7% of choosing the right door if he switches when there just two doors. No, he has a 50% chance. There are only two doors in play. He can’t chose #3 because it has been eliminated. It’s a new game. The game is now to chose between two doors and only two doors. One is a car and one is a goat. Period. The end.
I’ve been waiting for this post. I misspoke. YOu are absolutely correct that I was wrong to point out that “if he did it every week”. That was a very poor choice of words and was a classic example of the need for delete and edit post functionality here.
His knowledge IS critical, however. The reason is simple: If he does not know which one it is behind, then roughly a third of the time he’s going to pick the prize.
The key to this working is that Monty knows where the prize is. It took me a while to wrap my brain around why the odds actually change and you should ALWAYS change your decision, but once I got it, I “got it”.
And the interesting thing is that the woman that came up with this discovery actually had a lot of people that should have known better telling her she was wrong, when, in fact, she nailed it.
Pat Sajak noticed that, and thought it might be "deceiving" so they no longer broadcast it spinning itself.
O/T, but did Monty Hall "know" about the MH problem, and what did he think about it?
Then there is the Bob Barker problem.
66% probability if the model is blonde.
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