That is almost the exact same set up they saw when they predicted the high pressure would keep Henry from going North. So they predicted it would hit Corpus Christi, then the high pressure over Oklahoma and the plains would keep the storm system down and thus Harvey would hover inland then be forced by that pressure to head back into the Gulf where it would pick up steam in the warm waters and then slam into Corpus Christi again.
They were way off. Instead it rammed right into that high pressure wall heading North into Houston. Meanwhile Corpus Christi never got hit. All this happened within 24 hours.
So much for their models and their predictions.
If you are saying an amateur can predict it, I challenge you to tell me where Irma will go considering it’s a similar weather pattern swirling in the US as the one that was swirling there when Harvey was heading to Corpus Christi less than 24 hours before it crashed that high pressure wall.
Well, I noticed at the time that Houston seemed to catch them by surprise, not that they showed it! They had predicted heavy flooding rains, so there was their prediction.
But Harvey was wandering. They did predict that! It was just very hard, not to say impossible, to predict all that slow motion wavering.
The other thing was that the rain in Houston was part of a “bulge”, well away from the eye. Harvey was very lopsided.
I must say that Irma is at least reminiscent of Harvey at its current stage. They’re getting this big rain squall in Miami just now, which is part of a big bulge.
But anyway, if Irma suddenly charges west across the Gulf, I’ll eat my hat ... maybe I’d better boil and salt it, just in case!
Oh, and check the NWS Key West long range weather radar. This is just about a perfect image of Irma at this stage.