Posted on 06/14/2017 12:48:43 PM PDT by Brian Griffin
The Russians don't like either Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
Trump is pro-US military, reckless and quick to anger.
Hillary is combative, arrogant and quick to secretly seethe.
The Russian ambassador to the US has two main objectives:
1. Keep the US from meddling in Syria
2. Keep the US from building up its military forces in Europe
The Russians think Trump and Clinton both would meddle in Syria.
The Russians fear Trump would build up US forces in Europe while Hillary would prefer to spend money on welfare instead of on the military.
Therefore, given the two bad possibilities, the Russians would prefer Hillary.
To prevent US meddling in Syria, the Russians would play up their strong actions and their abilities, unhindered by domestic factors, to fight in Syria to a successful conclusion.
To prevent a US military buildup in Europe, the Russians would act friendly towards key US people.
As for helping Trump win an election, what could the Russians do?
The Russians couldn't prove Hillary looks down on a Democratic voting bloc, could they?
The Russians couldn't prove Hillary committed a criminal act, could they?
The Russians simply couldn't help prove something that wouldn't and didn't occur.
The Russians probably could with Putin's personal approval prove Hillary was careless with her e-mail, but Republican voters were sure of it and Democratic voters on the dole couldn't care less.
As for providing proof of a Russian e-mail breach, the Russians surely operate on a "need to know" basis too when it comes to KGB operations. Even to this very day, the Russian ambassador himself only knows about Hillary's e-mails from the news media.
The KGB works hard to provide Russian leadership with information. Russian leaders, like American and Western European leaders, like to be well-informed.
The KGB doesn't want its targets to beef up their information security, therefore it would not want its successes officially verified.
There were frequent claims by Obama and other Democrats that the Russians breached the DNC.
Why would Russians breach the DNC? Why to find out about Hillary and her chances to win.
Obviously, the Russians would also try to access Clinton family and associate cell phones and e-emails. Since Yahoo publicly claimed to have its security breached and the British had their cell phones tapped by a private news organization, the Russians were probably successful.
However, official Russian verification of what we already knew and should have known or suspected wouldn't have mattered, so the Russians would have no motivation to act to confirm their breaches.
The only official verification of Russian information system breaches came from Comey's FBI and Obama, never from the Russians themselves.
The Russians, who grew up under official surveillance, know how to keep their mouths shut.
The Russian ambassador simply made nice and kept Russian secrets to himself, as the top-level professional he undoubtedly is.
The Russians, unless specifically asked about Hillary's e-mails by Flynn, would only think he was after another well-paid speech engagement or Russian controlled military bases for US forces.
There is also the factor that Hillary was thought sure to win by the mainstream media and by the most reputable pollsters.
Hillary ran a very good media campaign that like the mainstream media, blasted Trump several times daily.
The Russians, like every major news organization in the USA, could only believe Hillary would win.
The Russians could only believe Russian electoral intervention only would have made the very vengeful and powerful Hillary Rodham Clinton angry at any possible Russian interference, if they ever even thought of it.
2. Nearly everyone other than Trump supporters expected Hillary to win. Why would the Russians back a losing candidate?
3. The Russians had spent years buying off the Clintons and their supporters. John Podesta was bought and paid for. Why would they through all that time and investment away?
The only explanation is that the Russians were simply hedging their bets. They wanted to have some contacts in the Trump camp on the off chance that Clinton crashed and burned.
The Russians want NATO off their borders just as we would want the Warsaw Pact out of Mexico and Canada. It is an understandable instinct of self defense by Moscow.
“I cannot forecast to you the action of Russia. It is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma; but perhaps there is a key. That key is Russian national interest.” - Winston Churchill
There are at least four completely independent things; possibilities, suppositions.
1: Russian non-gov’t actors may have attempted to influence US elections as an act of “vandalism”.
1A: They may have tried to do so via the release of embarrassing HRC emails which she embarrassingly left out for literally anyone to grab. It’s likely, IMO, they succeeded.
1B: They may have tried to actually bust into election tallying mechanisms. I think their influence here is/was minimal if not nonexistent.
2:2A:2B: Same as above, the Russian government.
3: Trump or his campaign may have colluded or sought advantage with either of the above. IMO this did not happen and not even close.
4: DNC insiders resentful of the treatment of Bernie may have leaked internal emails. I think this is likely, indeed, the most likely.
The Trump collusion angle is simply the least likely and IMO flat out did not happen, and there is zero evidence that it happened.
the russians are our natural allies.
Unlikely on both counts. Donald Trump talked about making NATO countries pay their own way. That doesn't look like a US build-up of forces in Europe. Talk about "America First" likewise suggested that we weren't going to increase our forces overseas.
Defense spending did decline under Obama, but was that because troops and weapons were cut or because we withdrew from some conflicts? I don't know, but Hillary is more hawkish than Obama was, and she wouldn't simply continue his policies on defense and the military. Do you really see the woman who wanted to intervene in Syria increasing welfare at the expense of the military?
Therefore, given the two bad possibilities, the Russians would prefer Hillary.
The theory is that the Russians just wanted to throw the US and its alliances into chaos and electing Trump would do that. Plus, HRC supported sanctions on Russia, and the Russians may have thought they'd have a better chance with DJT. I don't think the Russians "hacked the election" or that Putin loves Trump, but the idea that they had a natural preference for Clinton doesn't hold up.
“Therefore, given the two bad possibilities, the Russians would prefer Hillary.”
I disagree. The Russians, correctly, regard Hillary Rot-ham as deranged, unstable and malevolent. They think that she would force a hot war through her incompetence and ignorance. Initially, they thought they could reach some rational equilibrium with Trump, in sort of a Detente, second edition process. They are doubtful now, given the neocon bleatings and squirmings of late. A number of Trump supporters are doubtful as well.
“the russians are our natural allies.”
I think only in the loose sense of improved trade and exchanges, and coordination to bug stomp moslem kooks, but that is far more than we have in common with the sullen grifters in the EU who are now overtly intermeddling and hostile.
The continued brinksmanship with a significant nuclear power on behalf of nickel and dime client states that we call allies, is insane.
“increase our forces overseas”
The $54 billion defense spending increase Trump wants would probably augment US forces in Europe.
“Do you really see the woman who wanted to intervene in Syria increasing welfare at the expense of the military?”
Yes, even though she probably is the most militant national Democrat.
Winning elections is the number #1 priority of a top-level Democratic politician.
Votes and voters simply must be bought and paid for.
“sanctions”
I doubt the Germans shivered this winter to make the Russians sorry for the reckless action of Ukrainians.
Get in Hillary’s way and you’ll pay, dearly. The effort to trip up and impeach Trump is just payback for Bill’s impeachment.
4. The Russians already owned a sizable piece of Hillary Clinton.
4. The Russians already owned a sizable piece of Hillary Clinton, bought and paid for, and the Clintons have shown over many years that they follow through on corrupt deals that make them money.
“The Russians, correctly, regard Hillary Rot-ham as deranged, unstable and malevolent. They think that she would force a hot war through her incompetence and ignorance.”
There’s a lifetime of anger in Hillary, but she knows how to bottle it up quite well.
‘...The continued brinksmanship with a significant nuclear power on behalf of nickel and dime client states that we call allies, is insane...”
that is brilliant
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