Thunder Run to Seoul: Assessing North Korea’s War Plan

Real Clear Defense ^ | April 25, 2017 | Raymond Farrell

[C19fan]

For Westerners, North Korea is perennially on and off of the headlines. This year, the confluence of a new US president, the US missile attack in response to the use of chemical weapons in Syria, and an apparently in-your-face program of missile and nuclear tests on the part of North Korea has returned the world’s last Stalinist state to comment threads and coffee-room speculation. Military professionals obviously follow these events even more closely, and Maj. ML Cavanaugh’s recent thoughtful pieces for MWI serve as an example.

[C19fan]

The Norks can cause havoc for a few days then the superior forces of the ROK plus American will annihilate them. The only area where mass mechanized forces can be employed is from the DMZ to Seoul. The US and ROK knows that so the area is one huge tank trap. For example, there are tank obstacles already in place and the bridges are designed to become tank obstacles when they are blown up. The main problem is Seoul is within range of Nork artillery and missiles so there would be massive civilian casualities.

[headstamp 2]

[The main problem is Seoul is within range of Nork artillery and missiles so there would be massive civilian casualties.]

That’s the main carnage scenario.

[Nuc 1.1]

Let’s not forget to thank Truman for allowing the Kim’s to remain in power.

[Kozak]

Eisenhower.

[DCBryan1]

As soon as their T-55/T-62/T-34-85 line up and head south, all we need is a drive ne in the air and a couple of batteries ok MLRS loaded up.

[Revolutionary]

If I recall, they normally keep the artillery, etc. in caves ready to deploy. Sounds like good work for A-10s and bombers with big loads of CEM (Combined Effects Munitions). Just let them pop their heads out. Then add a few loads of MK-82s with mine type fuzes. Just in case they want to try it later.

[AppyPappy]

Seoul is home to lots of Chinese, including some children of Party leaders.

[pgkdan]

There is a role for force here—a strong ROK/US posture has certainly constrained North Korean aggression for decades—and in no way should DPRK threats be simply acceded to. But under current conditions, and given the scale of likely destruction, planners should strongly question whether each DPRK provocation—even the imminent development of a ICBM—justifies risking such a war.

We know that Kim has nukes but we think he lacks a reliable delivery system. I say that the threat of his developing an ICBM and improving his nuclear capability more than justifies the use of force.

[ctdonath2]

Yup. His nukes barely work and his missiles barely launch.
But they work and launch.
Just a matter of refinement before he can actually drop a thermonuclear bomb on Japan, Hawaii, or Seattle.

Turns out a fusion bomb isn’t really that hard to build, once a fission bomb is sufficiently functional.

If a guy down the street is trying to build a rifle from scratch, and is loudly declaring he’s going to shoot you with it, and he’s to the point of killing squirrels in his back yard with it, soon comes a point when you take steps to definitively stop him from following thru BEFORE he does so. The deterrent of arrest, prosecution, and death penalty for doing so may deter him for a while, but knowing he’s a nutcase you can’t trust that standard social hinderances to murder will effectively apply.

[sargon]

If a guy down the street is trying to build a rifle from scratch, and is loudly declaring he’s going to shoot you with it, and he’s to the point of killing squirrels in his back yard with it, soon comes a point when you take steps to definitively stop him from following thru BEFORE he does so. The deterrent of arrest, prosecution, and death penalty for doing so may deter him for a while, but knowing he’s a nutcase you can’t trust that standard social hinderances to murder will effectively apply.

Well said.

[Tallguy]

As the Wehrmacht found at Bastogne, if you run beind schedule you can run out of fuel too. NK may not have the fuel to sustain a mechanized thrust beyond a few days in duration. And their fuel trucks are going to be prime targets for the Air Force. So what they have may not be able to move forward to where it’s needed. And unlike 60 years ago the night offers no protection from air attack.

[Joe Brower]

I think that’s the biggest reason why war with NK is (and has been for so long) a non-starter — no matter how the scenario plays out, Seoul is going to get obliterated.

[SpirituTuo]

Wouldn’t a neutron bomb negate the artillery by denying the area, whether in caves or not?

[TexasRepublic]

If I lived in Seoul I would move further south out of artillery range before rush hour! The capital should have been moved decades ago.

[Nuc 1.1]

Truman removed MacArthur. Mac was going to take out the Chinese Army using Nukes if necessary. Truman relieved Mac.