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I'm bullish but IMHO the market has already factored in talk and plans...it is waiting on performance.

I believe Trump will put in place a great tax plan and significantly reduce expensive and economically onerous regulation.

That said, the market has already baked that into the cake.

When the evidence starts to come in (labor stats and earnings reports), the market will move to the next level.

BTW, I sold some covered calls on a bunch of QQQ that I own which will expire next Friday.

QQQ is selling at roughly $132.55 and I sold my calls at a strike of $135.00.

I was worried when Trump announced that he would release details about his tax plan on Wednesday, but still not concerned enough to consider closing my position...yet.

I don't think the market will react to his statement in such a way as to put my calls in negative territory...but I am watching carefully.

I am hoping the French election tomorrow will throw the markets into a state of confusion (i.e. drive them lower).

It may be hard to believe that the market can run farther, having more than tripled since 2009.

Stocks really have no motivation to show or prove or trade at their calculated value. They spend a lot of time trading at that or those values, but they also spend time trading higher or lower. There would seem to be an inordinately high condition of turmoil in the world right now, but this is not unprecedented. And furthermore, the market has not reflected this kind of chaos by plunging thousands of points. Hundreds, sure, but I would ask my fellow bears: HOW MANY TIMES in the last 7-8 years have the dip buyers NOT been rewarded? (ans: ZERO) Is that an opinion? NO! It’s math. How could the markets be at or within 2% of AT highs if they had not recovered every prior dip?

So stocks do not have any particular need to reflect all the turmoil in the world, particularly at any static moment you may decide to look at and price them. It’s entirely possible that stocks become something of a haven, considering the ROW is in comparatively rotten shape.

There can or should NO, NONE, ZERO doubt that a tax package, if passed, will result in US stocks being worth 15% more than they are. Barring nuclear war, this is IMO pretty much a certainty. So, if you’re in it, you’re in it for this type of outcome. Has the market had a 15% correction since the dark days of ‘09?

Nope.

The worries over Brexit were over in about 30 days. The worries over the election were over in about 30 hours. There is a lesson here.

The upside outweighs the downside. It has very seldom paid to be bearish on US equities. For mere minutes or hours at a time, yes. But for every win by the shorts, the longs have 15 or twenty.

In case there is any doubt, I am plenty bearish in my short term trades. It’s not the right way to be longer term. You can only stay short for very limited times on very carefully selected items.