Posted on 11/21/2016 12:38:31 AM PST by RC one
Last week’s 2016 Presidential election saw bombastic Republican populist businessman Donald Trump pull out a stunning victory over one of the most self-evidently corrupt candidates to ever run for the office, influence-peddling Democrat Hillary Clinton.
The immediate reaction of most gun owners and the gun industry ranged the spectrum from relief to joy. After all, Hillary Clinton was the most radically anti-gun candidate to ever run for the Presidency, and she had made clear that bankrupting the gun industry be finding a way to repeal the Protection of Lawful Commerce in Arms Act (PLCAA) was a key focus of her administration.
Now that Mrs. Clinton is vanquished, the gun industry is now facing another reality: the world we were all expecting and preparing for as an industry had radically changed, and we have been overtaken by events.
Clinton’s unexpected defeat, along with the sudden possibility that some major gun reforms now stand a high probability of being passed early in the allegedly pro-gun Trump administration, means that the industry itself is going to probably face a radical change in demand from buyers that will favor some companies and drive others out of business.
Here are five ways I expect the fallout of the 2016 election to radically change the gun industry.
The Death of the Budget AR?
Springfield Armory’s Saint series of AR-15 rifles was timed to enter the market at a time everyone expected that there would be a mad post-election rush on any and all “military style” rifles that could be produced.
Now that Clinton has skulked off to Chappaqua and the likelihood of a federal “assault weapon” ban has become very remote, it isn’t likely that the market is going to see as much demand for people attempting to stockpile multiple budget AR-15s. Instead, we’re likely to see the AR market contract, with buyers consolidating around manufacturers of “better-than-mil-spec” offerings in the $1,200-$2,000 range which can better handle the demands of serious shooters who put thousands of rounds through their rifles every year, and who may put that many rounds through an AR-15 in a single class.
The contraction is liable to force many smaller boutique AR-15 companies out of the market over the next few years, but don’t fret; what will remain will be those companies who are able to innovate, carve out a solid market niche, and deliver bomb-proof guns at a good price.
We could also possibly see a breakout of bullpup-style rifles as they are better adapted to American shooters and their price points no longer seem quite as high in comparison with other rifles.
Enjoy the Silence
Another gun law reform we expect to see passed this year is the Hearing Protection Act, which removes silencers from the National Firearms Act (NFA), a move long overdue. Under current law, people who desire one of these gun mufflers to help reduce the sound of the muzzle blast must pay a punitive $200 federal tax, and then wait the better part of a year for the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, and Incredibly Poor Service (BATIPS) to approve the paperwork. If removed from the NFA, silencers will become much more attractive investments for many shooters, and we can expect demand for them to skyrocket.
The National Rifle Association no-so-subtly showed that the Hearing Protection Act was high on their interest list by tweeting about silencers within hours of Trump winning the election, even before Mrs.Clinton conceded.
Concealed Carry Market on Maximum Overdrive
Two things President-Elect Trump had promised should have a significant impact on the concealed carry market: an executive order repealing prior executive orders that have made military bases and facilities “gun free zones” ripe for terror attacks, and the passage of some version of a national concealed carry reciprocity act, which will open up the entire country to concealed carry. Concealed carry has already surged in recent years thanks to state laws expanding where people can carry, and opening up entire regions of the country that were previous verboten will only accelerate the trend.
Expect these changes to help not only manufacturers of concealed carry handguns, but also manufacturers of concealed carry holsters, tactical lights, and related concealed carry paraphernalia ranging from ammunition to weapon lights to defensive knives often carried in conjunction with concealed handguns.
Here Comes the (Training) Boom
It’s comparatively easy to make an educated guess on emerging trends within the firearms buying market based upon prior performance and changes in laws, but it’s a bit more difficult to to predict what people are going to do with their guns and accessories once they’ve purchased them.
That said, recent trends have suggested that there is a firearms training renaissance well under way in the United States in recent years. Youth programs have exploded in popularity in recent years, and as these shooters grow older and matured, they’re following other market trends, and have purchased handguns and modern sporting rifles.
Shooters are also showing an interest in a wide breadth and depth of training, ranging from rudimentary concealed carry concepts to extreme close quarters (ECQC) to team tactics classes to aerial gunnery from helicopters (which is becoming surprisingly popular as helicopter hog hunting takes off) to precision rifle shooting, to various classes designed to help people excel in differing shooting sports.
Return of the Bolt Gun
From economy hunting rifles capable of astonishing out-of-the-box accuracy to the surge in popularity of high-end long range target shooting, to newfound interest in scout rifles from both manufacturers and shooters, bolt-gun enthusiasts have never had it as good as they do now. Now that prospective buys aren’t as focused on the guns that another President and congress might have attempted to take away with an “assault weapon” ban, they will be stretching their dollars (and their effective range) with guns designed to go the distance.
This will be boost not just for traditional rifle companies, but for manufacturers of scopes, slings, bipods, and related accessories.
Conclusions
Every market endures periods of booms and busts, disruptive events, and evolutions in both marker demand and product performance. In 2017, we’re likely to see Johnny-come-lately companies out to make a quick buck exiting the market as it contracts, while innovators and the old guard weather the downshift by focusing on turning out quality to discerning shooters.
It’s going to be a bumpy ride as things shake out, but the strong will survive, forging a stronger industry.
From my “about” page...
I will know the Republic is safe when:
(...)
3. The idea of releasing a person onto the street while denying him, under color of law, an otherwise lawful means of self-defense, is looked upon as not merely a violation of his rights as a human being, but also an act of barbarous cruelty on a par with throwing a paralytic into a swimming pool without a floatation vest.
The likelihood of that is small.
I grew up in NY and lived in Manhattan until I was 30 (long ago).
If the People of New York want to legislate themselves into bondage, that's their business.
But, MY rights as a US citizen are not up for their foolishness. NONRESIDENT CCW is a must.
I think it missed one, though it is an outlier.
The most important element of gun ownership is that it is utilitarian. Form follows function. But once that need is met, there comes a need for aesthetics, surrendering *some* utilitarianism for attractiveness and ergonomics.
This goes to the collectibles market. Most gun owners associate collectibility with just age or reputation. But many high value collectible guns are individuals, one of a kind, distinguished by their owners or made noteworthy by their appearance.
As example, today we have laser engraving that can turn a handgun or rifle into a work of art far more elaborate than could be done by hand.
And this means that new guns can be used as attractive *rewards* for distinguished service, or reflective of a place or thing part of that service.
This leads to something President Trump could do. To take guns and ammunition out of the FDR realm of “interstate commerce”. That is, if a gun and ammo are manufactured in a state, for exclusive use in that state, they should be outside the regulatory actions of the ATF.
Or is the thought of a Soros / Øbama inspired civil war the overriding factor?
I would love to be optimistic, but President Trump hasn’t actually done anything yet.
Hold the feet of the President and congress to the fire.
Quite right, which is why I commented in post #47.
Absolutely.
4. Since CCW holders have already been vetted, allow direct shipments to them from FFLs after sending in a 4473 (we can discuss that need after).
5. As per above, allow CCW holders to purchase handguns over-the-counter in a different state.
I did not realize how prejudiced against handgun ownership my NYS experience had left me, although I had lots of training in weapons from my six-year Army National Guard committment.
When I saw that I could just walk into a Virginia hardware store and buy a handgun without going through the rigamarole of having to get a premises permit even to buy it for home use, I was non-plussed!
Then, when I moved to Delaware a few years later it didn't get across to me right away that here I could just go out and buy a handgun for personal use. But after I was laid off and had time on my hand, I took up handgun shooting at the club as a pastime.
Thus, it took me about ten years to overcome my "New Yorker" dismissal of naturally instinctive personal ownership of handguns that had been drilled into me.
In NY, I never was made to think there was any problem with a responsible person owning any long gun. Most of my NY friends had at least a shotgun or rifle, and maybe several, according to their pocketbook. When I first started dating my wife, we went into the local sports store, and each of us bought a .22 rifle so we could shoot together. Her father was trained as a machinist and did some gun-smithing.
I agree with you. Just as auto operation is universal, my reasoning tells me that concealed carry ought to also be universal throughout the realm. If a person can be trusted to manage a two-ton behemoth at high speeds on a public highway (after passing a driving exam), why not owning and carrying a personal protective device? I think that would cause the potential rapist, wife-abuser, car-jacker, or bully to give his/her propensities a second thought. As you well know, an armed society tends to be a well-mannered one, eh?
However, my viewpoint is that if the individual shows poor judgment and his possession makes him a danger to others, his right as a mature citizen to carry a gun--as in operating a car or truck--ought to be restricted or taken away.
I trust him on this issue. He owes the NRA and the Christian coalition. There’s no way he effs his frontline stormtroopers when it comes time to appoint justices. We have his back. he has ours. and we’ll have his back again in 2020 and beyond.
Of course. and the war never truly ends but I think we’re sitting pretty good for a while so I’m mostly curious about how folks will be spending their gun dollars now that we have won this pivotal election. I don’t think most of us need to stockpile anything anymore. I think we can actually enjoy our hobby for a while. So what’s interesting to you these days?
If I could find one that could cook and do a little light housework, I’d marry it!
Certainly hope so!
It’s damn near Morning in America!
#2 would make #4 redundant. Before GCA868 you could buy firearms by mail-order and have them delivered to your house by the US Postal Service.
#3 would eliminate the need for a “CCW”, since the2nd Amendment says the right to carry shall not be infringed.
Fat fingers.
GCA68.
Or they figured that problem would resolve itself in an armed society. Mentally ill people are just as capable of getting a gun as criminals, laws don't stop that.
OK, points taken. I was thinking of half-steps to those ends.
May they all come to pass.
The liberal fascists globalists and muzzie cabal remains a threat. Keep a high and deep stock of ammo and weapons at ready.
Their plot to steal the election with illegal voters, lack of voter identification issues, and blatant fraud would have brought horrors not seen in this country since 1860s. Obozo and DNC appendages were pushing this for years. Fortunately it failed and wasn’t enough.
My personal belief it may be a possibility the muzzie refugees and illegals who are radical pisslam adherents brought in from the white mosque would pull a Tet offensive type mass attack across the country, in effort to destroy the Trump presidency in another plot by these liberal fascist/globalist/muzzie cabal scumbags. Be vigilant, ignore anti-2nd amendment sign foliage, keep stockpiling and stay armed to the teeth.
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