Posted on 11/21/2016 12:38:31 AM PST by RC one
Last week’s 2016 Presidential election saw bombastic Republican populist businessman Donald Trump pull out a stunning victory over one of the most self-evidently corrupt candidates to ever run for the office, influence-peddling Democrat Hillary Clinton.
The immediate reaction of most gun owners and the gun industry ranged the spectrum from relief to joy. After all, Hillary Clinton was the most radically anti-gun candidate to ever run for the Presidency, and she had made clear that bankrupting the gun industry be finding a way to repeal the Protection of Lawful Commerce in Arms Act (PLCAA) was a key focus of her administration.
Now that Mrs. Clinton is vanquished, the gun industry is now facing another reality: the world we were all expecting and preparing for as an industry had radically changed, and we have been overtaken by events.
Clinton’s unexpected defeat, along with the sudden possibility that some major gun reforms now stand a high probability of being passed early in the allegedly pro-gun Trump administration, means that the industry itself is going to probably face a radical change in demand from buyers that will favor some companies and drive others out of business.
Here are five ways I expect the fallout of the 2016 election to radically change the gun industry.
The Death of the Budget AR?
Springfield Armory’s Saint series of AR-15 rifles was timed to enter the market at a time everyone expected that there would be a mad post-election rush on any and all “military style” rifles that could be produced.
Now that Clinton has skulked off to Chappaqua and the likelihood of a federal “assault weapon” ban has become very remote, it isn’t likely that the market is going to see as much demand for people attempting to stockpile multiple budget AR-15s. Instead, we’re likely to see the AR market contract, with buyers consolidating around manufacturers of “better-than-mil-spec” offerings in the $1,200-$2,000 range which can better handle the demands of serious shooters who put thousands of rounds through their rifles every year, and who may put that many rounds through an AR-15 in a single class.
The contraction is liable to force many smaller boutique AR-15 companies out of the market over the next few years, but don’t fret; what will remain will be those companies who are able to innovate, carve out a solid market niche, and deliver bomb-proof guns at a good price.
We could also possibly see a breakout of bullpup-style rifles as they are better adapted to American shooters and their price points no longer seem quite as high in comparison with other rifles.
Enjoy the Silence
Another gun law reform we expect to see passed this year is the Hearing Protection Act, which removes silencers from the National Firearms Act (NFA), a move long overdue. Under current law, people who desire one of these gun mufflers to help reduce the sound of the muzzle blast must pay a punitive $200 federal tax, and then wait the better part of a year for the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, and Incredibly Poor Service (BATIPS) to approve the paperwork. If removed from the NFA, silencers will become much more attractive investments for many shooters, and we can expect demand for them to skyrocket.
The National Rifle Association no-so-subtly showed that the Hearing Protection Act was high on their interest list by tweeting about silencers within hours of Trump winning the election, even before Mrs.Clinton conceded.
Concealed Carry Market on Maximum Overdrive
Two things President-Elect Trump had promised should have a significant impact on the concealed carry market: an executive order repealing prior executive orders that have made military bases and facilities “gun free zones” ripe for terror attacks, and the passage of some version of a national concealed carry reciprocity act, which will open up the entire country to concealed carry. Concealed carry has already surged in recent years thanks to state laws expanding where people can carry, and opening up entire regions of the country that were previous verboten will only accelerate the trend.
Expect these changes to help not only manufacturers of concealed carry handguns, but also manufacturers of concealed carry holsters, tactical lights, and related concealed carry paraphernalia ranging from ammunition to weapon lights to defensive knives often carried in conjunction with concealed handguns.
Here Comes the (Training) Boom
It’s comparatively easy to make an educated guess on emerging trends within the firearms buying market based upon prior performance and changes in laws, but it’s a bit more difficult to to predict what people are going to do with their guns and accessories once they’ve purchased them.
That said, recent trends have suggested that there is a firearms training renaissance well under way in the United States in recent years. Youth programs have exploded in popularity in recent years, and as these shooters grow older and matured, they’re following other market trends, and have purchased handguns and modern sporting rifles.
Shooters are also showing an interest in a wide breadth and depth of training, ranging from rudimentary concealed carry concepts to extreme close quarters (ECQC) to team tactics classes to aerial gunnery from helicopters (which is becoming surprisingly popular as helicopter hog hunting takes off) to precision rifle shooting, to various classes designed to help people excel in differing shooting sports.
Return of the Bolt Gun
From economy hunting rifles capable of astonishing out-of-the-box accuracy to the surge in popularity of high-end long range target shooting, to newfound interest in scout rifles from both manufacturers and shooters, bolt-gun enthusiasts have never had it as good as they do now. Now that prospective buys aren’t as focused on the guns that another President and congress might have attempted to take away with an “assault weapon” ban, they will be stretching their dollars (and their effective range) with guns designed to go the distance.
This will be boost not just for traditional rifle companies, but for manufacturers of scopes, slings, bipods, and related accessories.
Conclusions
Every market endures periods of booms and busts, disruptive events, and evolutions in both marker demand and product performance. In 2017, we’re likely to see Johnny-come-lately companies out to make a quick buck exiting the market as it contracts, while innovators and the old guard weather the downshift by focusing on turning out quality to discerning shooters.
It’s going to be a bumpy ride as things shake out, but the strong will survive, forging a stronger industry.
There will still be hard fights to be fought of course (in the liberal states primarily) but, by and large, the freedom that we have enjoyed throughout our lives has been secured for the next generation.
The victory we have achieved here will allow us to divert resources to those fights that might not have been the highest priority before the victory.
We are entering a golden age of second amendment rights. From a firearm owner's perspective, I think these will be the best years we have ever seen.
The industry is going to take a bit of a hit in the short term but I think they would have taken a much bigger hit in the long run had Clinton won. Their days would have been numbered. Now, their days are numberless.
The industry has been, to a large degree, relying on panic to boost its sales for a long time now and they have profited heavily from that fear. They will now have to use those profits to build better weapons at better price points because the market is saturated with 1911s, Glocks, and AR15s. If they want to survive, they have to innovate. I for one can not wait to see what they develop over the next 10-20 years.
I think the same can be said of the reloading industry. Enthusiasts have been stockpiling reloading components for years. I think the industry will have to adjust to the new reality. The reloading industry is probably going to struggle with decreased demand. I know I for one am looking forward to shooting up my own stockpiles but that's going to take a while. I will probably invest in a progressive reloading press to accomplish the task.
I think the firearms manufacturers are going to have to get into the suppressor manufacturing business as well.
Why wouldn't they?
There could be a growing demand for bigger, better, badder suppressors. The right legislation is in place. The right Congress is in place. The right President is about to be in place. The time is right now. DJT may not get a second term. We need this to happen now so we have time to make the change permanent. there's a golden opportunity here. All they have to do is encourage congress to pass that bill.
I can only imagine how good silencers are going to get once they're stripped out of the NFA and the various manufacturers are struggling to keep up with demand.
I also expect to see the value of collectors pieces rising. It didn't make a lot of sense to spend a couple grand on a Colt Python before the victory. Now? Maybe it makes a little more sense.
So, I'm curious what other enthusiasts are interested in right now? What makes sense to you now that fear and panic aren't part of your thought process?
2. Ditto GCA68.
3. Specific, undeniably clear legislation "incorporating" (or whatever the term is) the whole Bill of Rights and specifying the nullity of any state or lower law or regulation to the contrary.
It's a good start...
I don’t think the budget AR is going anywhere. Budget ARs meet a need that doesn’t require an expensive build. Reliable budget ARs are perfect for home defense or as truck guns, there is no need for an expensive build for that purpose. Second, many AR fans enjoy the hobby of building their ARs to their own custom specs, which can either be budget or expensive. I think the AR market will contract somewhat across the board because fear of a ban/confiscation will diminish, but there will still be a market for ARs at every price level.
I WANT TO BUY A GUN IN NYC (Staten Island) as is my RIGHT under the constitutional 2nd amendment!!
I want it to be law (though we shouldn’t need one) at the federal level that NO INFRINGEMENTS on 2nd amendment be applied by ANY state.
You brighter guys can figure out if ex cons should be banned and how long, deeply disturbed (poor folk) mentally ill, etc.
I was in psych for a few weeks after brain injury. Severe depression (it’s gone).
There was a schizophrenic guy that was in there because he heard voices that “they” were coming to get him and he hid in the closet with a shotgun.
He KNEW it was all in his head while on pills in the psych ward, but if he stopped his pills when he left, that could be bad, having a shotgun around.
I assume during the time of our founding fathers those that severely mentally ill were locked away so there was no worry about them having a weapon.
It’s not over; not by a long shot.
I’m hoping Trump will eliminate import barriers on guns and ammo.
This would result in Israel rotating their older stockpiles of .223 ammo to the US market, and ramping up production.
I’d also like to see the return of cheap 7.62x39
It never ends but our fight just got much easier. We need to make the most of it. Passing the hearing protection act needs to be a priority. We need silencers to be as common as AR15s and Glocks so they can never be taken away.
Any plans to buy anything in the immediate future?
A number of countries have old collectible M1 carbines and BARs that should be importable. Kill the 1934 NFA and 1968 GCA. Allow importation of these collectibles. Allow “collectible” to include FA over 25 years old. I want a Chicago Typewriter. Without the ATF crap.
It's something to keep in mind.
Meanwhile, blue states are banning/curtailing firearms freedoms just as fast as they can - even without any act of legislative approval (Massachusetts is a perfect example).
Only the govt wouldn’t be able to make the distinction between depression/anxiety and Schizophrenia/severe bi polar.
You’re right. They are always dangerous and we never know what nut will be president in eight years.
Agreed 100%.
I got my suppressors in ‘02 & ‘03 for my 5.56s, 7.62x51 and am glad this is going to happen.
Look for the leftists to get the UN to fight the WAG (war against guns) for them, now that they’re out of power.
The agenda of the new congress has not been set yet. Don't be surprised if gun issues get de-prioritized. We all need to let Congress know that our support depends on their action. As soon as the new congress is sworn in, make 3 phone calls. Write 3 letters - on actual paper.
I've spent the last four years collecting antique but out of favor milsurp rifles. Back when ARs were $1800 for something low end you could pick up a Mauser 98K or SMLE in pretty good condition for around $350. I've seen my investments appreciate pretty fast so I hope the author is right about the rise of the bolt gun.
I think the next year or two will be a buying opportunity for AR and AK pattern rifles. Without fear buying, manufacturers could find themselves with a lot of inventory and the used market could go nuts - after all, how many M4A3s with 16 inch barrels and 1:9 twist rates does a guy need, especially if unrestricted SBRs start hitting the market?
And as always, BLOAT! The pendulum will swing back so keep up your stockpiles.
Make all the M16A1s in government inventory available through the CMP and C&R illegible.
Ooohhhhrraaaaaa!
M16 Rock and Roll!
One need more ARs than out of date mil=surplus.
I know it isn’t over but the need to rush out and stockpile is over for the time being so I’m just curious what folks are thinking about buying now that we are in the improved position that we are presently in. Honestly, I’m getting a brass catcher for my Glocks and I am going to burn through some powder and primers this winter. I’m interested in either a python or a 627 8 shot revolver or a Remington 700 in .338 RUM.
I want NYS and NYC (separate jurisdictions for firearms) to issue nonresident CCW permits OR to be forced to recognize other states’ permits.
I mean, I even have nonresident unrestricted Class A CCW in Massachusetts, for heaven’s sake!
I go to NY all the time. It’s a big hole in my coverage.
HEAR HERE! on that.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.