Posted on 11/15/2016 8:19:59 PM PST by Degaston
The Republicans have 8 seats, Dems have 23 seats, and the 2 Dem-leaning Independents are in this Class. With 44 seats in the other 2 classes for the GOP and Pence as VP this means the Dem's have to pick off 3 seats to get the majority.
Utah Hatch, Texas Cruz, Nebraska Fischer, Mississippi Wicker, and Wyoming Barrasso are about as close as possible to being done-deals that their seats stay GOP in 2018.
Picking off Corker in Tennessee would be super hard to do. Flake in Arizona could be vulnerable depending on fallout with immigration enforcement. About the only seat looking vulnerable is Heller in Nevada. Nevertheless, depending on how many of the Blue votes are non-Citizens and the number of Hispanics who really do support the rule of law. Hmmmm I'm part Hispanic and I definitely do support the rule of law.
So basically I put the odds on the Dem's taking back 3+ of these 8 seats at about 5%. I've never seen such an easy Defense position. It's the football equivalent of the GOP being Defense and the Dem's being on offense with 4th down and 20 to go on their 5 yard line.
Now on to the pickup potential. We have a whole slew of Dem's representing very Red states.
Joe Donnelley - Indiana Claire McCaskill - Missouri Jon Tester - Montana Heidi Heitkamp - ND Joe Manchin - WV
Then there are the purple States that Trump carried
PA - Casey WI - Baldwin OH - Brown FL - Nelson MI - Stabenow
Then some question marks
MN Klobucher NJ Menendez
Seems very Blue for the Senators
CA, NY, CT, DE, VT, ME, RI, MA, MD, HI, VA
My forecast is for a net 1 to net 7 pickup depending on how well Trump does.
In the House there were just 28 races inside 10 point margins and those went 16-12 for Democrats. This means that 227 Republicans won by 10+ points this time. This gives the GOP at least 90% odds on keeping the House in 2018.
So all they need to do is focus on being successful at implementing the Trump agenda and making it work. Then its full steam ahead to 2020.
Going to happen. Picking up seats.
Yes, the situation looks favorable indeed for the GOP.
And that’s all the more reason we have to work like hell, as though it were 2014 and we were trying to win a majority.
Now is no time to savor victory. The Left is going to get even more desperate and underhanded. Dirty is the only way they know how to fight.
Forewarned is forearmed.
We need to concentrate on the local level and education. Snowflakes aren’t born, they are manufactured in mass produced government schools.
Repeal the 17th ammendment . Gop
Has all state legislatures except 3
I thought we’d finally get 60+ seats. This article puts a damper on that.
Kelli Ward (ran against McCain in the primary this year) is already running against Flake in AZ. We are getting him OUT!!
1o Dem senators in red states are up. I think we can 8 or 9 of them.
That would be great! Libs don’t vote midterm helps.
Give Trump 6 months in office then look at what the chances are...I guarantee you they will improve. Until then I won’t make any guesses.
Heller is a relative putz, but I don’t see any strong Dems here in Nevada to run against him. Their bench is pretty weak. I am also working hard to break up the Harry Reid machine. Enough corruption to gag a horse.
Since when are we concerned about the welfare of GOP. We are concerned with America and the constitution, not the left or right hand branches of corrupt crony sell-outs.
I am concerned with Trump having a majority to accomplish his goals...Ya think the dems are going to cooperate with him?
that’s why it’s just an article and not reality :) we’ve yet to play our part in the matter.
Dem = SoS & the money is already lining up. Heller better vote right.
Manchin in WV is pretty much guaranteed. I believe Manchin has already floated the idea of switching parties. It would be his only shot at keeping the seat.
I think King might not be reelected in 2018. I heard Governor Paul LePage will run. LePage would be great...(and the Maine GOP is doing great)
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