1. The deck hatches over the cargo hold of the ship were not properly secured, or may have been damaged in the storm.
2. As a result, the ship began taking on water almost from the time they left port.
3. The water itself probably wouldn't have caused a catastrophe, but it began to act as a "lubricant" on the taconite pellets in the cargo hold.
4. As the wind got stronger and the waves got bigger, the cargo began to shift in the hold. This was probably what caused the list in the ship when the captain made his last radio transmission.
5. One particularly large wave came upon the ship from the north/northwest (the wind direction), lifting the stern up as it approached from the rear.
6. The combination of the rising stern of the ship and the "lubricated" taconite pellets caused a sudden forward shift in the cargo, instantly pitching the bow down beneath the surface. The weight of the cargo drove the ship straight down to the bottom of the lake like a crashing airplane.
There's some question about whether the ship broke in half from its impact on the floor of the lake, or if the rear half separated in that brief moment after the wave had passed underneath it and the stern was elevated in the air without any support underneath it.
How deep is the lake where the EF is located?
E.F. wasn’t the first Great Lakes ore boat to break in two in a storm. Those ships were designed solely to pass through locks and seaworthiness was secondary to cargo capacity. That a rogue wave did her in was a shock to everyone.
There are other theories as well, although your is slightly more likely than the other two. Over the years I have chatted with Coast Guard officers who are knowledgeable about the sinking.
1. The ship caught a wave on the bow and a wave on the stern
and the bottom fell out.
2. The Coast Guard resounded the depths of water near the sinking. There is the possibility that the Fitz’s bottom actually scraped lake bottom.
3. My own personal belief is no matter what theory is correct, the Fitz was cut in half and lengthened; her hull
was not as strong after that.
I was at a presentation of a guy who dove the wreck and he agrees with your analysis. The hatches weren’t fully dogged down.
I have a copy of this haunting painting of the Fitz in the final moments hanging in my living room.
http://www.jclary.com/edmundfitzgerald.html
Same theory I have, although instead of loose natch covers I think she bottomed out and began taking on water that way.
That’s the way I read it. The song makes it seem like the ship was in a slow prolonged death fight but it was in reality sudden.