[Alter Kaker]

In 1964 Ohio was a good proxy for the nation. In 2016 it's poorer, less educated and significantly whiter than the nation as a whole.

[Az Joe]

Understood.

In the last 4 elections it has tended a bit towards Repub in comparison to the national vote but not enough to justify the current “lead” Clinton has in most of the national polls.

There is also the perhaps “significant” effect the 2 minor parties may have in OH and nationwide that may bring a different result this election.