Understood.
In the last 4 elections it has tended a bit towards Repub in comparison to the national vote but not enough to justify the current “lead” Clinton has in most of the national polls.
There is also the perhaps “significant” effect the 2 minor parties may have in OH and nationwide that may bring a different result this election.
The Clinton lead is mostly due to her doing much better than Obama in the South. She’s doing about the same in the rust belt, and worse in the Northeast. Our losses in the South and gains in the Northeast are mostly irrelevant - except we can lose North Carolina (and - huge maybe - Georgia) and could win New Hampshire and a delegate in Maine. But in the end does it really matter if we win Texas by twenty points or only ten points? Not really, but it has a big impact on national polls.